Good Morning Tweeps, as I write this at 8 am we are trading on, guess where, yday VPOC......at 83.69 down about 75 ticks from yday close. If we open up here at 9 I expect the open to be very choppy, & good trading opps might have to wait until after inventories at 10:30.
83 & 83.15 are lvn's (low volume nodes) from yday trading & may act as support on any push down, if we break 83 a test of yday low at 82.21 is highly likely.
To the upside we have the gap at 84.45, & yday high just above that at .55. Any push through yday high will signal to me longer term buying & we still have the other open gap at 85.99.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Trade Review for 9/27/11
Hey Guys & Gals, here is todays trade review:
Trade 1: Long 82.62 (9:01)
Why: No opening drive down (an opening drive down open is where the opening price is the high of the first couple min, & is never to be faded until it proves otherwise aka trading back through the open), so when we traded back through the open I took the long & didnt want to see it back under the open or I would flip short.
Result: We dropped right back through the open where I flipped short as soon as we did taking a 3-4 tick loss in the process
Trade 2: Short 82.58 (9:05)
Why: We couldnt push through the opening swing high (opening swing is the basically the first push down & first push up...some days the opening swing is not clear & never really comes into play, but some days it does) so for today the opening swing low was 82.42, opening swing high was 82.83. So I flipped from long to short when we traded back under the open, I hit the market as soon as we did & got fills at 82.60 & 82.56 got a lil slippage.
Result: We came down to last Thursdays high that I highlighted in the pre-open update as the key # this morning. It ended up holding to the tick at 82.21....we got 1 scale off for +35 ticks & it reversed to stop me out flat on the rest.
Trade 3: Long 82.61 (9:19)
Why: 82.21 held to the tick, & we traded back through the open at 82.61. In the pre-open update I said if price is accepted above 82.21 then this will signal to me that we will likely test higher prices.
Result: Thats exactly what happened & this ended up being our best trade of the day. I got +100 ticks on the best out on this trade, & closed it because the equity markets reacted negativity to the consumer confidence # at 10 & expected oil to follow.
Trade 4: Long 83.69 (10:27)
Why: We pushed through the IB high (IB is high/low of first hour of trading 9-10 est for crude) which really signaled strength to me after a terrible consumer confidence number at 10. I wanted it to go right then & there or I would bail, usually I would flip short in this trade if it dropped back out of the IB, but I didnt for 2 reasons. The first reason was because of the aformentioned strength, & the second was because we made the IB high right at 10 which always makes trading around that level a little trickier & its something I should have considered a little more strongly in the next trades.
Result: It didnt go right away, & we chopped back under the IB high, where I took a 4 tick loss
Trade 5: Basically everything was the same as trade 4
Trade 6: Same as trade 4 & 5...at this point I should have done 1 of 2 things, I either needed to sit back & say "because the market is chopping back & forth on this level it is not as significant as it usually would be" or I should have stepped back, & asked myself the key 3 questions, What have we done? What are we trying to do? How well are we doing it? If the answers were still up, up & up (which they were) I should have just waited for a little better entry & gave it a little more wiggle room.
Trade 7: ( Same as trade 4, 5, 6......I actually caught it right this time, but my darn mouse froze up on me & I had to do a quick reboot, & while I was rebooting, we made the new high & ended up pushing to 84.20....the key thing here is that we had the right idea just poor execution.
Trade 8: Short 83.69 (11:15)
Why: After we got that push up to 84.20 if we were going to continue up I would have thought that we would not return to the IB, but we did so I took the short when we dropped back in.
Result: Got 1 scale at 83.35 which was the former vpoc, & got stopped flat on the rest
Trade 9: Long 83.69 (12:10)
Why: We pushed back up over the IB, so I was stalking a long again, we came back down & tested IB high & got a nice 1 min candle there
Result: Took it off for a tiny gain because of no follow thru
Trade 10: Short 84.24 (2:16)
Why: I saw a huge sell order chasing the bid down, & thought we had a good chance to close the day at the vpoc which was basically the IB high. I dont usually base a trade off this alone, but because it was what happened at the close yday I thought it would increase the chances of it happening today.
Result: Didnt work, took a 6 tick loss.
So this is most important part when I go over my trades everyday, & its focusing on what we did wrong, & what we could have improved on the days trades. The first big thing is that when I saw 82.21 holding to the tick it should have been a HUGE red flag to me that price had no interest in lower prices & should have flipped long there. The second thing is that I should have greatly de-valued the IB high because we made it right at 10, & we chopped all over it. After trade 5 I should have taken a step back, re-assessed, & given the trade room to work.
If you have any questions let me know.
Trade 1: Long 82.62 (9:01)
Why: No opening drive down (an opening drive down open is where the opening price is the high of the first couple min, & is never to be faded until it proves otherwise aka trading back through the open), so when we traded back through the open I took the long & didnt want to see it back under the open or I would flip short.
Result: We dropped right back through the open where I flipped short as soon as we did taking a 3-4 tick loss in the process
Trade 2: Short 82.58 (9:05)
Why: We couldnt push through the opening swing high (opening swing is the basically the first push down & first push up...some days the opening swing is not clear & never really comes into play, but some days it does) so for today the opening swing low was 82.42, opening swing high was 82.83. So I flipped from long to short when we traded back under the open, I hit the market as soon as we did & got fills at 82.60 & 82.56 got a lil slippage.
Result: We came down to last Thursdays high that I highlighted in the pre-open update as the key # this morning. It ended up holding to the tick at 82.21....we got 1 scale off for +35 ticks & it reversed to stop me out flat on the rest.
Trade 3: Long 82.61 (9:19)
Why: 82.21 held to the tick, & we traded back through the open at 82.61. In the pre-open update I said if price is accepted above 82.21 then this will signal to me that we will likely test higher prices.
Result: Thats exactly what happened & this ended up being our best trade of the day. I got +100 ticks on the best out on this trade, & closed it because the equity markets reacted negativity to the consumer confidence # at 10 & expected oil to follow.
Trade 4: Long 83.69 (10:27)
Why: We pushed through the IB high (IB is high/low of first hour of trading 9-10 est for crude) which really signaled strength to me after a terrible consumer confidence number at 10. I wanted it to go right then & there or I would bail, usually I would flip short in this trade if it dropped back out of the IB, but I didnt for 2 reasons. The first reason was because of the aformentioned strength, & the second was because we made the IB high right at 10 which always makes trading around that level a little trickier & its something I should have considered a little more strongly in the next trades.
Result: It didnt go right away, & we chopped back under the IB high, where I took a 4 tick loss
Trade 5: Basically everything was the same as trade 4
Trade 6: Same as trade 4 & 5...at this point I should have done 1 of 2 things, I either needed to sit back & say "because the market is chopping back & forth on this level it is not as significant as it usually would be" or I should have stepped back, & asked myself the key 3 questions, What have we done? What are we trying to do? How well are we doing it? If the answers were still up, up & up (which they were) I should have just waited for a little better entry & gave it a little more wiggle room.
Trade 7: ( Same as trade 4, 5, 6......I actually caught it right this time, but my darn mouse froze up on me & I had to do a quick reboot, & while I was rebooting, we made the new high & ended up pushing to 84.20....the key thing here is that we had the right idea just poor execution.
Trade 8: Short 83.69 (11:15)
Why: After we got that push up to 84.20 if we were going to continue up I would have thought that we would not return to the IB, but we did so I took the short when we dropped back in.
Result: Got 1 scale at 83.35 which was the former vpoc, & got stopped flat on the rest
Trade 9: Long 83.69 (12:10)
Why: We pushed back up over the IB, so I was stalking a long again, we came back down & tested IB high & got a nice 1 min candle there
Result: Took it off for a tiny gain because of no follow thru
Trade 10: Short 84.24 (2:16)
Why: I saw a huge sell order chasing the bid down, & thought we had a good chance to close the day at the vpoc which was basically the IB high. I dont usually base a trade off this alone, but because it was what happened at the close yday I thought it would increase the chances of it happening today.
Result: Didnt work, took a 6 tick loss.
So this is most important part when I go over my trades everyday, & its focusing on what we did wrong, & what we could have improved on the days trades. The first big thing is that when I saw 82.21 holding to the tick it should have been a HUGE red flag to me that price had no interest in lower prices & should have flipped long there. The second thing is that I should have greatly de-valued the IB high because we made it right at 10, & we chopped all over it. After trade 5 I should have taken a step back, re-assessed, & given the trade room to work.
If you have any questions let me know.
Pre-Open Update 9/27/11
Good Morning Tweeps! As I write this we are gapping up about a 1.50 above yday high, & about 2.50 above yday close.
What I'll be looking for:
-If we accept price above 82.21 (highest point buyers could push up after the huge gap down Thursday) after the open, it will signal to me that we are likely to test higher prices.
-We have resistance at 83 & 83.50ish....above that & we will be looking for the gapfill from last Thursday at 85.99.
-Yday opening price was a key level all day yday, & I expect the same today.
-If we accept price under 82.21 at any point today it will signal to me underlying weakness & will make a gapfill to the downside at 80.15 a much higher probability.
Eco data:
-Consumer Confidence at 10 EST
What I'll be looking for:
-If we accept price above 82.21 (highest point buyers could push up after the huge gap down Thursday) after the open, it will signal to me that we are likely to test higher prices.
-We have resistance at 83 & 83.50ish....above that & we will be looking for the gapfill from last Thursday at 85.99.
-Yday opening price was a key level all day yday, & I expect the same today.
-If we accept price under 82.21 at any point today it will signal to me underlying weakness & will make a gapfill to the downside at 80.15 a much higher probability.
Eco data:
-Consumer Confidence at 10 EST
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
TRUmav's Crude School
Whats up Tweeps? I'm really really excited to announce that I have decided to start my own trading "school." Everything will be dedicated to crude oil (CL) as it seems to be in the highest demand for my followers & blog readers. Let me walk you through everything that it will cover:
Our own private twitter feed with Real-Time trades
-I have hired an intern to sit with me while I trade & will be in charge of the twitter feed so the trade calls will be in as Real-Time as humanly possible. The second I'm in the intern will tweet direction & entry price.
Daily Prep & Daily Trade Reviews
-Every morning before the open I will send out my charts w/ all the key levels of interest & what I'll be looking for during the day.
-At the end of each day I will do a trade review of each trade, why I got in, & what happened, just like the other blog post.
Other Goodies
-Everyday I will send out other info that I find helpful, such as Weekly & Monthly Pivot Points, COT reports, & daily econmic data.
-Individual feedback...what I mean is I will be giving out "homework" every now & again & will expect you complete it & return it to me for grading. Now I know some of you are probably laughing or some are probably saying WTF we just want to make money not do homework. Well let me make clear what I'm really wanting to do here......
The goal of this whole thing is so that one day I can put myself out of business....ya you read that right, I want you to really really learn what I'm doing, & why I'm doing it. I want you to learn the process from start to finish. A creed I like to live by is "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, Teach a man to fish, feed him for a LIFETIME."
So all that being said, if your just looking for the easy road & just wanting to blindly follow someone elses trades, then this is not for you. This is going to be a HUGE investment of my time, so if you want to sign up make sure you are doing it for the right reasons and you are truly coming here to LEARN...and then make money. Because this is going to be such a huge commitment, I have to be compensated for my time, business expenses (good interns are hard to find in south GA) ect....
The cost will be 499 a month, I know that sounds like a lot, but I have set it at this price for several reasons:
1. Crude Oil is the most difficult, volitale, highly leveraged market there is....a mere 50 ticks a month will pay for your subscripction, & if your wondering my expectancy every day I enter the market is right at 112 ticks aka my avg profit taken since I started trading crude is 1120 dollars per contract. For anyone that has followed me on twitter for any period of time, you know that I take money out of the market everyday & that basically my resume is posted everyday in real-time via my trading.
2. If you can trade crude profitably, you can trade anything....anything!
3. Hopefully the cost will scare off some of the people on the fence that are just wanting to take the easy road.
4. I dont want 100 "students" I really just want a good group of 10-20 people so I can be here full time for the ones that are members & have real 1 on 1 mentoring & learning.
So thats pretty much it, the first day of school will start the day after I get back from vacation on Tuesday Sept 27 2011. To subscribe just click the button at the bottom of this page, it will take you to the paypal part, & you'll be ready to rock & roll. I look forward to teaching yall how to fish ;)
-Mav
My lawyer said to make sure to include this:
Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. I am not a registered investment adviser. This information is a general publication that reflects my opinion and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment adviser for investment advice. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential
Our own private twitter feed with Real-Time trades
-I have hired an intern to sit with me while I trade & will be in charge of the twitter feed so the trade calls will be in as Real-Time as humanly possible. The second I'm in the intern will tweet direction & entry price.
Daily Prep & Daily Trade Reviews
-Every morning before the open I will send out my charts w/ all the key levels of interest & what I'll be looking for during the day.
-At the end of each day I will do a trade review of each trade, why I got in, & what happened, just like the other blog post.
Other Goodies
-Everyday I will send out other info that I find helpful, such as Weekly & Monthly Pivot Points, COT reports, & daily econmic data.
-Individual feedback...what I mean is I will be giving out "homework" every now & again & will expect you complete it & return it to me for grading. Now I know some of you are probably laughing or some are probably saying WTF we just want to make money not do homework. Well let me make clear what I'm really wanting to do here......
The goal of this whole thing is so that one day I can put myself out of business....ya you read that right, I want you to really really learn what I'm doing, & why I'm doing it. I want you to learn the process from start to finish. A creed I like to live by is "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, Teach a man to fish, feed him for a LIFETIME."
So all that being said, if your just looking for the easy road & just wanting to blindly follow someone elses trades, then this is not for you. This is going to be a HUGE investment of my time, so if you want to sign up make sure you are doing it for the right reasons and you are truly coming here to LEARN...and then make money. Because this is going to be such a huge commitment, I have to be compensated for my time, business expenses (good interns are hard to find in south GA) ect....
The cost will be 499 a month, I know that sounds like a lot, but I have set it at this price for several reasons:
1. Crude Oil is the most difficult, volitale, highly leveraged market there is....a mere 50 ticks a month will pay for your subscripction, & if your wondering my expectancy every day I enter the market is right at 112 ticks aka my avg profit taken since I started trading crude is 1120 dollars per contract. For anyone that has followed me on twitter for any period of time, you know that I take money out of the market everyday & that basically my resume is posted everyday in real-time via my trading.
2. If you can trade crude profitably, you can trade anything....anything!
3. Hopefully the cost will scare off some of the people on the fence that are just wanting to take the easy road.
4. I dont want 100 "students" I really just want a good group of 10-20 people so I can be here full time for the ones that are members & have real 1 on 1 mentoring & learning.
So thats pretty much it, the first day of school will start the day after I get back from vacation on Tuesday Sept 27 2011. To subscribe just click the button at the bottom of this page, it will take you to the paypal part, & you'll be ready to rock & roll. I look forward to teaching yall how to fish ;)
-Mav
My lawyer said to make sure to include this:
Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. I am not a registered investment adviser. This information is a general publication that reflects my opinion and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment adviser for investment advice. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential
Monday, September 19, 2011
Monday 9/19/11 Trade Review
Hey Tweeps, its been a while since I did a post, & seeing as how I wont be here the rest of the week due to a long overdue vacation I figured I owed it to ya. So here we go.....
Trade 1: Long 87.02 (9:01)
Why: We basically got an opening drive up open, & pushed right through back into Fridays range where I took the long right above Fridays low of 87.
Result: No scales & ended up taking a 5 tick loss when I flipped short the next trade.
Trade 2: Short 86.97 (9:03)
Why: We got almost zero follow thru on the push back into Fridays range & dropped right back out of it. I get a lot of questions on how I enter trades, a lot of the time this is what I do & actually used on this trade: when I took the long in trade 1, I put in a stop for twice the # of contracts that I was in the long for, so for example, I was long 4 in trade 1, & has a stop in for 8 so the second my stop gets hit im instantly short 4. You have to be careful doing this because you can get chopped up on a none trending day, but when crude routinely has 50 tick 1 min candles a lot of the time this is the only to get a decent fill at an area of interest.
Result: Closed the trade out just in front of the swing low at 85.11 for almost 200 ticks
Trade 3: Long 85.40 (10:40)
Why: We couldnt even make it down to the swing low at 85, & we traded back into the IB, where I took the long just in front of the IB low.
Result: Got a scale at 86.14, which was just in front of the rotation high from (9:36).
Trade 4: Short 85.35 (12:36)
Why: The rotation high held, & we dropped back out of the IB.
Result: We popped right back out & took a 7 tick loss
Trade 5: Short 85.37 (12:49)
Why: Same as trade 4
Result: Scaled at the swing low (85) & closed it when we had poor follow thru just above it.
Trade 6: Long 85.06 (1:08)
Why: I treat swing highs/lows the same as I treat previous days highs/low, so when we rejected price under the swing low at 85 & a decent buying tail for a 1 min candle, I took a long just above 85.
Result: I really thought I was gonna get stopped out on this 1 because we didnt really move away from it for like 15 min, but got lucky & got 100 ticks out of it.
Yellow Lines: IB high/low (high/low of first hour of trading 9-10)
Purple Line: Fridays low
Red Line: Open
Blue Line: Swing Low
Trade 1: Long 87.02 (9:01)
Why: We basically got an opening drive up open, & pushed right through back into Fridays range where I took the long right above Fridays low of 87.
Result: No scales & ended up taking a 5 tick loss when I flipped short the next trade.
Trade 2: Short 86.97 (9:03)
Why: We got almost zero follow thru on the push back into Fridays range & dropped right back out of it. I get a lot of questions on how I enter trades, a lot of the time this is what I do & actually used on this trade: when I took the long in trade 1, I put in a stop for twice the # of contracts that I was in the long for, so for example, I was long 4 in trade 1, & has a stop in for 8 so the second my stop gets hit im instantly short 4. You have to be careful doing this because you can get chopped up on a none trending day, but when crude routinely has 50 tick 1 min candles a lot of the time this is the only to get a decent fill at an area of interest.
Result: Closed the trade out just in front of the swing low at 85.11 for almost 200 ticks
Trade 3: Long 85.40 (10:40)
Why: We couldnt even make it down to the swing low at 85, & we traded back into the IB, where I took the long just in front of the IB low.
Result: Got a scale at 86.14, which was just in front of the rotation high from (9:36).
Trade 4: Short 85.35 (12:36)
Why: The rotation high held, & we dropped back out of the IB.
Result: We popped right back out & took a 7 tick loss
Trade 5: Short 85.37 (12:49)
Why: Same as trade 4
Result: Scaled at the swing low (85) & closed it when we had poor follow thru just above it.
Trade 6: Long 85.06 (1:08)
Why: I treat swing highs/lows the same as I treat previous days highs/low, so when we rejected price under the swing low at 85 & a decent buying tail for a 1 min candle, I took a long just above 85.
Result: I really thought I was gonna get stopped out on this 1 because we didnt really move away from it for like 15 min, but got lucky & got 100 ticks out of it.
Yellow Lines: IB high/low (high/low of first hour of trading 9-10)
Purple Line: Fridays low
Red Line: Open
Blue Line: Swing Low
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