Tuesday, October 16, 2012





Market:_____Crude_________________                                         Date:_____10/16/12___________

Attempted Direction:                                Buyer                                      Seller

1. Rotation Factor (       0       )-neither
2. Range Extension -neither
3. Tails-                                                       X                                                    X
4. Buy/Selling Composite                             X                                                     X
5. Opening Type-Open Auction Out of Range
6. Day Type-Normal

Overall Attempted Direction:                     Higher               Lower           Neutral

Comments: We got the dreaded normal day w/ zero range extention to either side of the IB. Crude looks to be building energy for an upside break as lower prices continue to cut off new selling activity. Not to mention a nice inverted head & shoulders pattern that has formed on the daily chart w/ the 200 ema acting as the neckline. I would continue to look to buy dips unless we lost 91.20-91.30 area now.
Directional Performance:

1. Volume:
Daily:                   (          102k                            )           Higher           Lower            Unchanged
Auction Average:   (        146k                             )          Higher          Lower             Unchanged
2. Value-Area Placement
Higher                       OL/High              Lower           OL/Low                  Unchgd
3.  Value-Area Width:                 Wider              Average                    Narrower

Comments:  We have pretty much formed a new balance area on the daily chart between 91 & 93. A break above 93.66 would signal an upside breakout, if crude can get back into our old balance area (starting at 94.28) we could see a huge move back to our swing high. Accepting price back under 91 would likely lead to short term long liquation back to 88 & big support at 87.50.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Trading from 10/3

Video going over some market profile lessons & trades from 10/3....this was meant to be uploading before 10/4 so disregard the part looking ahead to 10/4. Hope you enjoy! 


Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Activity Report for Crude Oil 9/18


Market:__Crude____________________                                         Date:_______9/18_________

Attempted Direction:   Both                             Buyer                                 Seller

1. Rotation Factor (      0        )                                 X                                  X
2. Range Extension                                                  X                                 X
3. Tails                                                                                                        X
4. Buy/Selling Composite                                         X                                  X
5. Opening Type-Open auction in range
6. Day Type-Neutral Extreme

Overall Attempted Direction:                     Higher               Lower           Neutral

Comments: Going into the day we expected resposive buyers as we viewed Mondays late day selling as nothing more then long liquadation & not new sellers coming into the market. The first half of the trading we found resposive buyers but stalled out just short of our clvn at 97.05 which has been a key spot in this balance area from 8/13-9/16. But as you can see from the table above, BOTH timeframes were active today w/ a rotation factor of exactly zero, range extension to both side, almost got tails to both side, & a very balanced shape profile being it was a fairly nice bell curve shape. While we closed near the lows, our VPOC was at 96.40 for the Nov contract.

Directional Performance:
1. Volume:    
Daily:                       (                     78K                         )           Higher           Lower            Unchanged
Auction Average:   (                      128K                       )          Higher          Lower             Unchanged
2. Value-Area Placement
Higher                       OL/High              Lower           OL/Low                  Unchgd
3.  Value-Area Width:                 Wider              Average                    Narrower
Comments:  Have to take the volume stats w/ grain of salt today & tomorrow w/ the contract rollover from Oct to Nov
Expected Results:  With the market seeming to be in balance today we see no reason why it will not be again tomorrow until after inventories at 10:30. Would not surprise me to see to another Neurtal day w/ both timeframes again being active. The major downside reference is still going to be Mondays low which is very close to our clvn at 95.11, under that the old balance area low at 94.28 is the next major area w/ major clvn just under that at 94.10ish. To the upside, Mondays closing swing high (97.12) w/ our clvn at 97.05 is major area on top of us now. Above that the edge of the single prints from mondays drop is at 97.83 which always is a big area of interest if/when you re-test that area, any price exceptance above 97.83 would signal that the OTF buyers has regained control of the market. As always volume & TPO charts will be posted on my twitter feed in the morning & on charthub.com. Here is look at todays 5 min chart for crude.

Activity Record Crude 9/17

 
 

Market:_____Crude_________________                                         Date:______9/17__________

Attempted Direction:                                Buyer                                      Seller

1. Rotation Factor (       -10       )                                                                        X
2. Range Extension                                          X                                                 X
3. Tails                                                             X
4. Buy/Selling Composite                                                                                     X
5. Opening Type  (Open In range, open auction)
6. Day Type             (Neutral extreme)

Overall Attempted Direction:                     Higher               Lower           Neutral

Comments: Our expectations going into the day was a balanced two timeframe trade that would most likely be contanted by Fridays trading. Our line in the sand to the down was the spike high from the QE3 anouncement on Thursday (98.79). Once we blew right through Fridays low & the spike high from Thursday we knew something was up.  We made it down to our big clvn at 95.15ish before we found support, in hindsight this just looks like a big long liquidation break as the market had probably become to long & higher prices were failing to bring in new buying activity, also our vpoc was still inside of yday IB.

Directional Performance:
1. Volume:     154k
Daily:                       (                      154k                        )           Higher           Lower            Unchanged
Auction Average:   (                        117k                     )          Higher          Lower             Unchanged
2. Value-Area Placement
Higher                       OL/High              Lower           OL/Low                  Unchgd
3.  Value-Area Width:                 Wider              Average                    Narrower
Comments:  Because we view yday move as simply the market having gotten to long, short term, & long liquidation taking place (not new OTF sellers) We will be looking to buy early morning dips. Look back in our prev balance area from 8/16-9/13 for places to do business. Our crude composite has been posted to charthub.com

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

MavCrudeSchool

Hey Tweeps, we are kicking ass & taking names here at @MavCrudeSchool. A few updates, we no longer use twitter as it is to slow for the lightning fast crude oil market, we now use gotomeeting to make everything as real time as possible, and you will also have access to all my charts live & in realtime. There is also a live chat box where you can interact with the other members & ask me any questions you might have. As always if you do decide to join you will still be required to complete weekly homework assignments to help you better understand the market profile & how to use it. Ive decided to release my trading performance for the month of January (even though it was a slow month, & because of holidays/vacation I only traded 17 days) so you can see what an average month looks like. The totals are done in average outs, aka, what the mean winner per trade is as I scale out minus all loses.

So for example if I long 10 contracts at 100, scale 2 at 100.20, scale 2 at 100.40 scale 2 at 100.60, scale 2 at 100.80, close out last 2 at 101, then the mean winner is 50 ticks. & on the flip side if I take a 10 tick loss, is takes a whole 10 off the days average.
For Crude:                                                                    
1/3  + 10
1/4  + 104
1/5  + 101
1/6  + 78
1/9  + 81
1/10+ 85
1/11-30
1/18+120
1/19+105
1/20+15
1/23-23
1/24+32
1/25+61
1/26+111
1/27+9
1/30 -15
1/31 +109

For ES, it was a very slow month & we didnt trade it much, but pulled 11 points out of it
For options, we played the AAPL earnings, buying 415 puts & 430 calls for 8 dollars a piece, on the open next day puts were at zero, but sold the calls 26 dollars a piece, netting 1000 dollars per pair.
On the open the following morning we bought AAPL 450 weekly puts for 3 bucks, sold most of them for 5.50 in first hour of trading that day. Later in the day we bought GOOG 580 puts at 3.50, sold 2 days later for 11. So the 3 options trades we did last month we knocked out of the park.

Anyways these are the sums of the trades that I called out for the members last month, to go along w/ a great education about Market Profile. Feel free to ask me any questions, or if your ready to learn & make a lil money on the side what are you waiting for? Sign up below!

My lawyer said to make sure to include this:
Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. I am not a registered investment adviser. This information is a general publication that reflects my opinion and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment adviser for investment advice. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential.