7/26/11 Tuesdays Action

What up Tweeps, I wanted to go over Tuesdays action, as it was a big outside day, & we had some really nice setups.....so here we go!

Reminder: Red line=open Yellow lines=IB high/low Purple lines=yday high/low

Trade 1. Short 99.70 (9:01)
Why: We opened right on Mondays high to the tick, these are always the best opens, because we almost always pick a direction, & commit. Because we didnt get a print over .77 in the first min, I viewed it as an opening drive down, so I took the short, w/ .77 (yday high & 2day open) as my backstop.
Result: We ended up pushing through Mondays low as 98.52, then headed to THE low volume node on my 30 min composite at 97.75, I covered the rest just in front of it.

Trade 2. Long 97.79 (9:44)
Why: This (99.75) was THE low volume node on my composite, so if we were gonna bounce, it was gonna be here. Wish I could have saved a snap shot of it before the open, to show...
Result: I put my stop at breakeven after it moved 50 ticks in my favor, but it came back & stopped me flat, head fake #1 for the day....

Trade 3. Long 97.80 (10:07)
Why: Same reasons as trade #2, but now the IB was complete w/ the IB low at 97.80, lining up right w/ the lvn....very good, high probability setup.
Result: Got the bounce I was looking for, w/ fridays low as my main target at 98.52

Trade 3.5. Added Long 98.53 (10:46)
Why: I almost never do this, but I added to winner because I scaled heavy just in front of mondays low at 98.52, but then when we busted right through it I added back on what I had taken off because when we pushed & held mondays low, I knew the other timeframe buyers were in control, & we had a great chance to make it back to the open.
Result: We made it back to open almost where I got a scale off, then I ended up (dumbly) bailing at 99.25 on the rest because 99.77 was such a big area in the day timeframe I didnt think we would get through it.

Trade 4. Long 99.80 (12:06)
Why: 99.77 was mondays high, todays open, & todays IB high, not to mention w/ opening drive opens, the open becomes even more important as a reference point. Everyone that gets short has there stops above here, & this was such a big area, that fact that we pushed through it should have screamed at everyone that we were not done yet with the upside push yet. So I hit the offer, & didnt want to see it back under .77.
Result: I got a scale off at 100.50, then got stopped on the rest when dropped back under 100.

Trade 5. Short 99.81 (1:41)
Why: Again 99.77 was such an important area in the day timeframe this day, that if we were gonna head higher we should have held it (yday high, 2day open, 2day IB high)
Result: I didnt manage my risk very well, & ended up taking a loss when it got back over 100. Head fake #2.

Trade 6. Short 99.77 (2:09)
Why: Same reason as trade 4...it would have worked if we had more time, just ran out of time.
Result: closed out at the close

7/19/11 Tues Rollover

YO, sorry I've been really lazy w/ the blog, but we had a great trading day in crude today so I wanted to be sure to do a review of my trades, & the setups I took. A lot of days in oil the the opening swing isnt very clear, but today it played a pretty big role.

Trade 1: Long 97.64 (9:04)
My Thinking: I actually had a short bias coming into the day, but that went right out the window when we got an opening drive up open (basically where the open is the low print). And as you all should know, your fighting the odds big time trying to fade any kind of opening drive unless it trades through & holds its open. I waited for crude to come back & test the open, which it did at 9:03, so I took the long at 97.64, w/ the open as my backstop, & would have flipped it short had we traded through the open. I tweeted this a couple minutes after I got in "Staying long unless we trade back through the open"
Result: I admittedly got really greedy with this trade & was a richard for a tick & ended up giving back way too much on this one, but I just didnt really see any reason why we wouldn't get to 99 on this push (we ended up getting it later almost) Got a scale off at 98.64 which I tweeted, then watched it drip all the way back under 98, where I bailed on it at 98.10. 100 ticks on best out, 50 on most of it...

Trade 2: Short half 98.12 (11:47)
My Thinking: I was pretty surprised we had blead all the way back down to the Opening Swing high at 97.93, but I hadn't seen any real buyers come through on the tape since 9:30ish, and we were in a spot where if we were gonna head back up it shouldnt have come down this far. And since the double top, the down rotations where ALL bigger then the up's on the 1 min. So I took this short as 98.20 which was a low volume node as my back stop looking for a test of the open again. Not the greatest risk/reward, so thats why only a 1/2 position.
Result: Got stopped for -8 ticks...it went just above where I didnt want to see it, so I got shaked out, it happens at least once a day for me usually.

Trade 3: Short half 98.15 (12:02)
My Thinking: We dropped right back under 98.20....so I figured that I had just got shaken, and the same setup was still in tact.
Result: Took a scale at the O/S high, & at Fridays high (97.74)....we came back & retest the O/S high, this is where I tweeted "shorts probably want O/S high to hold here" it held, so I actually thought that the shorts where in business, but when we didnt even make it back down to the open, and push back above the O/S high, I knew shorts had lost control again, and bailed at 98, best out was 35 ticks.

Trade 4: Long 98 (1:03)
My Thinking: We couldnt even make it down to the open, and reclaimed the O/S high, so took the long at 98, w/ the O/S high as my backstop.
Result: I have to thank Obama for a lot of this one....he said something that sent the dollar down, so of course crude ripped. I expecting it to just drift back up like it had drifted back down earlier...but thanks Obama! I ended up bailing on it at the IB high at 98.76.

Trade 5: Short 98.74 (1:33)
My Thinking: Yall should be very fimilliar with this setup by now, I think its been on every post, lol. We probed through the IB high, tagged my upside target for the day (99) then dropped back into the IB. So I took the short w/ the IB as my backstop
Result: Took a -5 tick loss at 98.81...it head faked me...again

Trade 6: Short 98.74 (1:47)
My Thinking: Exact same setup, except this time I felt a lot better about it because when you drop back in multipule times you almost always rotate back to value.
Result: Yahtzee.....dropped right back to the O/S high, & went flat at the close at 97.85....this is probably my favorite play if you havent noticed.