Good Morning Tweeps, as I write this at 8 am we are trading on, guess where, yday VPOC......at 83.69 down about 75 ticks from yday close. If we open up here at 9 I expect the open to be very choppy, & good trading opps might have to wait until after inventories at 10:30.
83 & 83.15 are lvn's (low volume nodes) from yday trading & may act as support on any push down, if we break 83 a test of yday low at 82.21 is highly likely.
To the upside we have the gap at 84.45, & yday high just above that at .55. Any push through yday high will signal to me longer term buying & we still have the other open gap at 85.99.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Trade Review for 9/27/11
Hey Guys & Gals, here is todays trade review:
Trade 1: Long 82.62 (9:01)
Why: No opening drive down (an opening drive down open is where the opening price is the high of the first couple min, & is never to be faded until it proves otherwise aka trading back through the open), so when we traded back through the open I took the long & didnt want to see it back under the open or I would flip short.
Result: We dropped right back through the open where I flipped short as soon as we did taking a 3-4 tick loss in the process
Trade 2: Short 82.58 (9:05)
Why: We couldnt push through the opening swing high (opening swing is the basically the first push down & first push up...some days the opening swing is not clear & never really comes into play, but some days it does) so for today the opening swing low was 82.42, opening swing high was 82.83. So I flipped from long to short when we traded back under the open, I hit the market as soon as we did & got fills at 82.60 & 82.56 got a lil slippage.
Result: We came down to last Thursdays high that I highlighted in the pre-open update as the key # this morning. It ended up holding to the tick at 82.21....we got 1 scale off for +35 ticks & it reversed to stop me out flat on the rest.
Trade 3: Long 82.61 (9:19)
Why: 82.21 held to the tick, & we traded back through the open at 82.61. In the pre-open update I said if price is accepted above 82.21 then this will signal to me that we will likely test higher prices.
Result: Thats exactly what happened & this ended up being our best trade of the day. I got +100 ticks on the best out on this trade, & closed it because the equity markets reacted negativity to the consumer confidence # at 10 & expected oil to follow.
Trade 4: Long 83.69 (10:27)
Why: We pushed through the IB high (IB is high/low of first hour of trading 9-10 est for crude) which really signaled strength to me after a terrible consumer confidence number at 10. I wanted it to go right then & there or I would bail, usually I would flip short in this trade if it dropped back out of the IB, but I didnt for 2 reasons. The first reason was because of the aformentioned strength, & the second was because we made the IB high right at 10 which always makes trading around that level a little trickier & its something I should have considered a little more strongly in the next trades.
Result: It didnt go right away, & we chopped back under the IB high, where I took a 4 tick loss
Trade 5: Basically everything was the same as trade 4
Trade 6: Same as trade 4 & 5...at this point I should have done 1 of 2 things, I either needed to sit back & say "because the market is chopping back & forth on this level it is not as significant as it usually would be" or I should have stepped back, & asked myself the key 3 questions, What have we done? What are we trying to do? How well are we doing it? If the answers were still up, up & up (which they were) I should have just waited for a little better entry & gave it a little more wiggle room.
Trade 7: ( Same as trade 4, 5, 6......I actually caught it right this time, but my darn mouse froze up on me & I had to do a quick reboot, & while I was rebooting, we made the new high & ended up pushing to 84.20....the key thing here is that we had the right idea just poor execution.
Trade 8: Short 83.69 (11:15)
Why: After we got that push up to 84.20 if we were going to continue up I would have thought that we would not return to the IB, but we did so I took the short when we dropped back in.
Result: Got 1 scale at 83.35 which was the former vpoc, & got stopped flat on the rest
Trade 9: Long 83.69 (12:10)
Why: We pushed back up over the IB, so I was stalking a long again, we came back down & tested IB high & got a nice 1 min candle there
Result: Took it off for a tiny gain because of no follow thru
Trade 10: Short 84.24 (2:16)
Why: I saw a huge sell order chasing the bid down, & thought we had a good chance to close the day at the vpoc which was basically the IB high. I dont usually base a trade off this alone, but because it was what happened at the close yday I thought it would increase the chances of it happening today.
Result: Didnt work, took a 6 tick loss.
So this is most important part when I go over my trades everyday, & its focusing on what we did wrong, & what we could have improved on the days trades. The first big thing is that when I saw 82.21 holding to the tick it should have been a HUGE red flag to me that price had no interest in lower prices & should have flipped long there. The second thing is that I should have greatly de-valued the IB high because we made it right at 10, & we chopped all over it. After trade 5 I should have taken a step back, re-assessed, & given the trade room to work.
If you have any questions let me know.
Trade 1: Long 82.62 (9:01)
Why: No opening drive down (an opening drive down open is where the opening price is the high of the first couple min, & is never to be faded until it proves otherwise aka trading back through the open), so when we traded back through the open I took the long & didnt want to see it back under the open or I would flip short.
Result: We dropped right back through the open where I flipped short as soon as we did taking a 3-4 tick loss in the process
Trade 2: Short 82.58 (9:05)
Why: We couldnt push through the opening swing high (opening swing is the basically the first push down & first push up...some days the opening swing is not clear & never really comes into play, but some days it does) so for today the opening swing low was 82.42, opening swing high was 82.83. So I flipped from long to short when we traded back under the open, I hit the market as soon as we did & got fills at 82.60 & 82.56 got a lil slippage.
Result: We came down to last Thursdays high that I highlighted in the pre-open update as the key # this morning. It ended up holding to the tick at 82.21....we got 1 scale off for +35 ticks & it reversed to stop me out flat on the rest.
Trade 3: Long 82.61 (9:19)
Why: 82.21 held to the tick, & we traded back through the open at 82.61. In the pre-open update I said if price is accepted above 82.21 then this will signal to me that we will likely test higher prices.
Result: Thats exactly what happened & this ended up being our best trade of the day. I got +100 ticks on the best out on this trade, & closed it because the equity markets reacted negativity to the consumer confidence # at 10 & expected oil to follow.
Trade 4: Long 83.69 (10:27)
Why: We pushed through the IB high (IB is high/low of first hour of trading 9-10 est for crude) which really signaled strength to me after a terrible consumer confidence number at 10. I wanted it to go right then & there or I would bail, usually I would flip short in this trade if it dropped back out of the IB, but I didnt for 2 reasons. The first reason was because of the aformentioned strength, & the second was because we made the IB high right at 10 which always makes trading around that level a little trickier & its something I should have considered a little more strongly in the next trades.
Result: It didnt go right away, & we chopped back under the IB high, where I took a 4 tick loss
Trade 5: Basically everything was the same as trade 4
Trade 6: Same as trade 4 & 5...at this point I should have done 1 of 2 things, I either needed to sit back & say "because the market is chopping back & forth on this level it is not as significant as it usually would be" or I should have stepped back, & asked myself the key 3 questions, What have we done? What are we trying to do? How well are we doing it? If the answers were still up, up & up (which they were) I should have just waited for a little better entry & gave it a little more wiggle room.
Trade 7: ( Same as trade 4, 5, 6......I actually caught it right this time, but my darn mouse froze up on me & I had to do a quick reboot, & while I was rebooting, we made the new high & ended up pushing to 84.20....the key thing here is that we had the right idea just poor execution.
Trade 8: Short 83.69 (11:15)
Why: After we got that push up to 84.20 if we were going to continue up I would have thought that we would not return to the IB, but we did so I took the short when we dropped back in.
Result: Got 1 scale at 83.35 which was the former vpoc, & got stopped flat on the rest
Trade 9: Long 83.69 (12:10)
Why: We pushed back up over the IB, so I was stalking a long again, we came back down & tested IB high & got a nice 1 min candle there
Result: Took it off for a tiny gain because of no follow thru
Trade 10: Short 84.24 (2:16)
Why: I saw a huge sell order chasing the bid down, & thought we had a good chance to close the day at the vpoc which was basically the IB high. I dont usually base a trade off this alone, but because it was what happened at the close yday I thought it would increase the chances of it happening today.
Result: Didnt work, took a 6 tick loss.
So this is most important part when I go over my trades everyday, & its focusing on what we did wrong, & what we could have improved on the days trades. The first big thing is that when I saw 82.21 holding to the tick it should have been a HUGE red flag to me that price had no interest in lower prices & should have flipped long there. The second thing is that I should have greatly de-valued the IB high because we made it right at 10, & we chopped all over it. After trade 5 I should have taken a step back, re-assessed, & given the trade room to work.
If you have any questions let me know.
Pre-Open Update 9/27/11
Good Morning Tweeps! As I write this we are gapping up about a 1.50 above yday high, & about 2.50 above yday close.
What I'll be looking for:
-If we accept price above 82.21 (highest point buyers could push up after the huge gap down Thursday) after the open, it will signal to me that we are likely to test higher prices.
-We have resistance at 83 & 83.50ish....above that & we will be looking for the gapfill from last Thursday at 85.99.
-Yday opening price was a key level all day yday, & I expect the same today.
-If we accept price under 82.21 at any point today it will signal to me underlying weakness & will make a gapfill to the downside at 80.15 a much higher probability.
Eco data:
-Consumer Confidence at 10 EST
What I'll be looking for:
-If we accept price above 82.21 (highest point buyers could push up after the huge gap down Thursday) after the open, it will signal to me that we are likely to test higher prices.
-We have resistance at 83 & 83.50ish....above that & we will be looking for the gapfill from last Thursday at 85.99.
-Yday opening price was a key level all day yday, & I expect the same today.
-If we accept price under 82.21 at any point today it will signal to me underlying weakness & will make a gapfill to the downside at 80.15 a much higher probability.
Eco data:
-Consumer Confidence at 10 EST
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
TRUmav's Crude School
Whats up Tweeps? I'm really really excited to announce that I have decided to start my own trading "school." Everything will be dedicated to crude oil (CL) as it seems to be in the highest demand for my followers & blog readers. Let me walk you through everything that it will cover:
Our own private twitter feed with Real-Time trades
-I have hired an intern to sit with me while I trade & will be in charge of the twitter feed so the trade calls will be in as Real-Time as humanly possible. The second I'm in the intern will tweet direction & entry price.
Daily Prep & Daily Trade Reviews
-Every morning before the open I will send out my charts w/ all the key levels of interest & what I'll be looking for during the day.
-At the end of each day I will do a trade review of each trade, why I got in, & what happened, just like the other blog post.
Other Goodies
-Everyday I will send out other info that I find helpful, such as Weekly & Monthly Pivot Points, COT reports, & daily econmic data.
-Individual feedback...what I mean is I will be giving out "homework" every now & again & will expect you complete it & return it to me for grading. Now I know some of you are probably laughing or some are probably saying WTF we just want to make money not do homework. Well let me make clear what I'm really wanting to do here......
The goal of this whole thing is so that one day I can put myself out of business....ya you read that right, I want you to really really learn what I'm doing, & why I'm doing it. I want you to learn the process from start to finish. A creed I like to live by is "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, Teach a man to fish, feed him for a LIFETIME."
So all that being said, if your just looking for the easy road & just wanting to blindly follow someone elses trades, then this is not for you. This is going to be a HUGE investment of my time, so if you want to sign up make sure you are doing it for the right reasons and you are truly coming here to LEARN...and then make money. Because this is going to be such a huge commitment, I have to be compensated for my time, business expenses (good interns are hard to find in south GA) ect....
The cost will be 499 a month, I know that sounds like a lot, but I have set it at this price for several reasons:
1. Crude Oil is the most difficult, volitale, highly leveraged market there is....a mere 50 ticks a month will pay for your subscripction, & if your wondering my expectancy every day I enter the market is right at 112 ticks aka my avg profit taken since I started trading crude is 1120 dollars per contract. For anyone that has followed me on twitter for any period of time, you know that I take money out of the market everyday & that basically my resume is posted everyday in real-time via my trading.
2. If you can trade crude profitably, you can trade anything....anything!
3. Hopefully the cost will scare off some of the people on the fence that are just wanting to take the easy road.
4. I dont want 100 "students" I really just want a good group of 10-20 people so I can be here full time for the ones that are members & have real 1 on 1 mentoring & learning.
So thats pretty much it, the first day of school will start the day after I get back from vacation on Tuesday Sept 27 2011. To subscribe just click the button at the bottom of this page, it will take you to the paypal part, & you'll be ready to rock & roll. I look forward to teaching yall how to fish ;)
-Mav
My lawyer said to make sure to include this:
Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. I am not a registered investment adviser. This information is a general publication that reflects my opinion and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment adviser for investment advice. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential
Our own private twitter feed with Real-Time trades
-I have hired an intern to sit with me while I trade & will be in charge of the twitter feed so the trade calls will be in as Real-Time as humanly possible. The second I'm in the intern will tweet direction & entry price.
Daily Prep & Daily Trade Reviews
-Every morning before the open I will send out my charts w/ all the key levels of interest & what I'll be looking for during the day.
-At the end of each day I will do a trade review of each trade, why I got in, & what happened, just like the other blog post.
Other Goodies
-Everyday I will send out other info that I find helpful, such as Weekly & Monthly Pivot Points, COT reports, & daily econmic data.
-Individual feedback...what I mean is I will be giving out "homework" every now & again & will expect you complete it & return it to me for grading. Now I know some of you are probably laughing or some are probably saying WTF we just want to make money not do homework. Well let me make clear what I'm really wanting to do here......
The goal of this whole thing is so that one day I can put myself out of business....ya you read that right, I want you to really really learn what I'm doing, & why I'm doing it. I want you to learn the process from start to finish. A creed I like to live by is "Give a man a fish, feed him for a day, Teach a man to fish, feed him for a LIFETIME."
So all that being said, if your just looking for the easy road & just wanting to blindly follow someone elses trades, then this is not for you. This is going to be a HUGE investment of my time, so if you want to sign up make sure you are doing it for the right reasons and you are truly coming here to LEARN...and then make money. Because this is going to be such a huge commitment, I have to be compensated for my time, business expenses (good interns are hard to find in south GA) ect....
The cost will be 499 a month, I know that sounds like a lot, but I have set it at this price for several reasons:
1. Crude Oil is the most difficult, volitale, highly leveraged market there is....a mere 50 ticks a month will pay for your subscripction, & if your wondering my expectancy every day I enter the market is right at 112 ticks aka my avg profit taken since I started trading crude is 1120 dollars per contract. For anyone that has followed me on twitter for any period of time, you know that I take money out of the market everyday & that basically my resume is posted everyday in real-time via my trading.
2. If you can trade crude profitably, you can trade anything....anything!
3. Hopefully the cost will scare off some of the people on the fence that are just wanting to take the easy road.
4. I dont want 100 "students" I really just want a good group of 10-20 people so I can be here full time for the ones that are members & have real 1 on 1 mentoring & learning.
So thats pretty much it, the first day of school will start the day after I get back from vacation on Tuesday Sept 27 2011. To subscribe just click the button at the bottom of this page, it will take you to the paypal part, & you'll be ready to rock & roll. I look forward to teaching yall how to fish ;)
-Mav
My lawyer said to make sure to include this:
Trading of securities, options and futures may not be suitable for everyone and involves the risk of losing part or all of your money. Commentaries are educational in nature and are designed to contribute to your general understanding of financial markets and technical analysis. Use it how you want and at your own risk. I am not a registered investment adviser. This information is a general publication that reflects my opinion and is not a specific recommendation to any one individual. You must consult your own broker or investment adviser for investment advice. Controlling risk through the use of protective stops is essential
Monday, September 19, 2011
Monday 9/19/11 Trade Review
Hey Tweeps, its been a while since I did a post, & seeing as how I wont be here the rest of the week due to a long overdue vacation I figured I owed it to ya. So here we go.....
Trade 1: Long 87.02 (9:01)
Why: We basically got an opening drive up open, & pushed right through back into Fridays range where I took the long right above Fridays low of 87.
Result: No scales & ended up taking a 5 tick loss when I flipped short the next trade.
Trade 2: Short 86.97 (9:03)
Why: We got almost zero follow thru on the push back into Fridays range & dropped right back out of it. I get a lot of questions on how I enter trades, a lot of the time this is what I do & actually used on this trade: when I took the long in trade 1, I put in a stop for twice the # of contracts that I was in the long for, so for example, I was long 4 in trade 1, & has a stop in for 8 so the second my stop gets hit im instantly short 4. You have to be careful doing this because you can get chopped up on a none trending day, but when crude routinely has 50 tick 1 min candles a lot of the time this is the only to get a decent fill at an area of interest.
Result: Closed the trade out just in front of the swing low at 85.11 for almost 200 ticks
Trade 3: Long 85.40 (10:40)
Why: We couldnt even make it down to the swing low at 85, & we traded back into the IB, where I took the long just in front of the IB low.
Result: Got a scale at 86.14, which was just in front of the rotation high from (9:36).
Trade 4: Short 85.35 (12:36)
Why: The rotation high held, & we dropped back out of the IB.
Result: We popped right back out & took a 7 tick loss
Trade 5: Short 85.37 (12:49)
Why: Same as trade 4
Result: Scaled at the swing low (85) & closed it when we had poor follow thru just above it.
Trade 6: Long 85.06 (1:08)
Why: I treat swing highs/lows the same as I treat previous days highs/low, so when we rejected price under the swing low at 85 & a decent buying tail for a 1 min candle, I took a long just above 85.
Result: I really thought I was gonna get stopped out on this 1 because we didnt really move away from it for like 15 min, but got lucky & got 100 ticks out of it.
Yellow Lines: IB high/low (high/low of first hour of trading 9-10)
Purple Line: Fridays low
Red Line: Open
Blue Line: Swing Low
Trade 1: Long 87.02 (9:01)
Why: We basically got an opening drive up open, & pushed right through back into Fridays range where I took the long right above Fridays low of 87.
Result: No scales & ended up taking a 5 tick loss when I flipped short the next trade.
Trade 2: Short 86.97 (9:03)
Why: We got almost zero follow thru on the push back into Fridays range & dropped right back out of it. I get a lot of questions on how I enter trades, a lot of the time this is what I do & actually used on this trade: when I took the long in trade 1, I put in a stop for twice the # of contracts that I was in the long for, so for example, I was long 4 in trade 1, & has a stop in for 8 so the second my stop gets hit im instantly short 4. You have to be careful doing this because you can get chopped up on a none trending day, but when crude routinely has 50 tick 1 min candles a lot of the time this is the only to get a decent fill at an area of interest.
Result: Closed the trade out just in front of the swing low at 85.11 for almost 200 ticks
Trade 3: Long 85.40 (10:40)
Why: We couldnt even make it down to the swing low at 85, & we traded back into the IB, where I took the long just in front of the IB low.
Result: Got a scale at 86.14, which was just in front of the rotation high from (9:36).
Trade 4: Short 85.35 (12:36)
Why: The rotation high held, & we dropped back out of the IB.
Result: We popped right back out & took a 7 tick loss
Trade 5: Short 85.37 (12:49)
Why: Same as trade 4
Result: Scaled at the swing low (85) & closed it when we had poor follow thru just above it.
Trade 6: Long 85.06 (1:08)
Why: I treat swing highs/lows the same as I treat previous days highs/low, so when we rejected price under the swing low at 85 & a decent buying tail for a 1 min candle, I took a long just above 85.
Result: I really thought I was gonna get stopped out on this 1 because we didnt really move away from it for like 15 min, but got lucky & got 100 ticks out of it.
Yellow Lines: IB high/low (high/low of first hour of trading 9-10)
Purple Line: Fridays low
Red Line: Open
Blue Line: Swing Low
Thursday, August 18, 2011
8/16/11 NQ Trades
Hola Tweeps, I took the day off to hang out w/ boo for the day, & didnt tweet any, so I figured the least I could do was to give you guys a blog post :) This is a review of the trades I took on Tues, the 16th, & why I took them.
Trade 1: Short 88.5 (9:49)
Why: I got good selling pressure on the tape, & we dropped back under the open
Result: 1 scale & stopped flat
Trade 2: Short 89 (10:04)
Why: We had econ # at 10, got selling pressure, dropped back under open
Result: 1 scale & stopped flat
Trade 3: Long 90 (10:22)
Why: We couldnt even make it down to the IB low after the #, & we got back above the open & held.
Result: Closed most of the trade at the gapfill at 05, & got a lucky fill to close out just in front of mondays high from a spike in the Euro.
Trade 4: Short 98.5 (12:20)
Why: Couldnt even make it to Mondays high on that spike, & we dropped back into the IB
Result: Took a 8 tick loss, got headfaked
Trade 5: Short 98 (12:24)
Why: Same as trade 4
Result: Closed it at the IB low because it held to the tick on the 1st try
Trade 6,7,8: Short, Long, Short 82.5 (12:56)
Why: I traded this 1 live on twitter if you remember, at first just barely lost IB low were I got short, but we didnt get any real sellers so I took the long right when we crossed back into the IB, we broke below it again w/ good sell pressure this time, so flipped for a 2nd time short. The context clues that I should have just been looking short was that the open pretty much held, we couldnt even get to yday high, & o/s low was holding to the tick...
Result: Closed it out 2 tick off the lows. Look back on my twitter feed to go over it if ya want.
Trade 9: Long 78.5 (1:49)
Why: Support held in the 65 area, & we got back into mondays range, mondays low was 77.75.
Result: Scaled at the Open (89.75) & later added
Trade 10: Added Long 84.25 (2:07)
Why: Mondays low held on the re-test, we got back into the IB again, I only had a 1/4 left from trade 9 & I was looking for a balanced day.
Result:Closed trade at the IB high.
Trade 1: Short 88.5 (9:49)
Why: I got good selling pressure on the tape, & we dropped back under the open
Result: 1 scale & stopped flat
Trade 2: Short 89 (10:04)
Why: We had econ # at 10, got selling pressure, dropped back under open
Result: 1 scale & stopped flat
Trade 3: Long 90 (10:22)
Why: We couldnt even make it down to the IB low after the #, & we got back above the open & held.
Result: Closed most of the trade at the gapfill at 05, & got a lucky fill to close out just in front of mondays high from a spike in the Euro.
Trade 4: Short 98.5 (12:20)
Why: Couldnt even make it to Mondays high on that spike, & we dropped back into the IB
Result: Took a 8 tick loss, got headfaked
Trade 5: Short 98 (12:24)
Why: Same as trade 4
Result: Closed it at the IB low because it held to the tick on the 1st try
Trade 6,7,8: Short, Long, Short 82.5 (12:56)
Why: I traded this 1 live on twitter if you remember, at first just barely lost IB low were I got short, but we didnt get any real sellers so I took the long right when we crossed back into the IB, we broke below it again w/ good sell pressure this time, so flipped for a 2nd time short. The context clues that I should have just been looking short was that the open pretty much held, we couldnt even get to yday high, & o/s low was holding to the tick...
Result: Closed it out 2 tick off the lows. Look back on my twitter feed to go over it if ya want.
Trade 9: Long 78.5 (1:49)
Why: Support held in the 65 area, & we got back into mondays range, mondays low was 77.75.
Result: Scaled at the Open (89.75) & later added
Trade 10: Added Long 84.25 (2:07)
Why: Mondays low held on the re-test, we got back into the IB again, I only had a 1/4 left from trade 9 & I was looking for a balanced day.
Result:Closed trade at the IB high.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Monday 9/1/11
Good Afternoon, we got another outside day on Monday which are always my favorite days to trade, & offer the greatest profit potential. So lets jump right in.
I didn't trade the first hour of crude because I knew we were gonna get nice volatility in the indexes so I only traded in the S&P and Nasdaq the whole first hour of crude. Not to mention the only real setups I would have had was a long right off the open, as we basically got an opening drive open up, & I would have been interested in a short in the 98.50 area because it was a nice lvn from the past week of trading, & it was basically the low from 7/22 & 7/25.
Trade 1: Long 97.11 (10:00)
Why: As I went over in the last post, opening drive opens (where the opening print is the low/high of the day up to that point) makes the open even more important, because its also going to function as the high/low of the day & IB high/low. I never really like to fade this kind of open unless the market PROVES to me that we are no longer 1 time framing in the direction of the opening drive, or we approach a major area to do business in the composite. So right after the # came out at 10 we retested the open at 97.11 which is where I got long. Again, if we were going to continue to move up, this is the area that we should have held. We moved back up like 30 ticks, I got 1 scale off, then was stopped flat when we broke through the open to the downside.
Trade 2: Short 97.09 (10:05)
Why: If we were gonna head back up, we should have held the open, & we didnt, so I took the short just under the open, I ended up eating 10 ticks on this trade, it went just high enough back above the open to headfake me....its the cost of business using this style.
Trade 3: Short 97.06 (10:12)
Why: Same reason as trade 2, when we dropped back under the open, I just wanted to see a 1 min candle hold under the open before I got back in, so entered short again right after that just under the open, looking for a test of prev days range.
Result: We made it down to test fridays high, got a tiny bounce, then dropped back into fridays range, I ended up closing the trade out at fridays low around 95, for lil over 2 bucks.
As a side note: If I was not already short, I would have got short as soon as dropped back into fridays range.
Trade 4: Long 94.98 (11:02)
Why: We held Fridays low on a 2nd retest, & I had just covered the rest of my short, so tried the long, w/ a stop under 94.86 (& would have flipped short if stopped). This was only a 1/2 size trade because of the context of the day (we were 350 ticks off the high of the day). I got 2 scaled & was stopped for +1 tick on the rest.
Trade 5: Short 94:84
Why: We broke under Fridays low.
I didn't trade the first hour of crude because I knew we were gonna get nice volatility in the indexes so I only traded in the S&P and Nasdaq the whole first hour of crude. Not to mention the only real setups I would have had was a long right off the open, as we basically got an opening drive open up, & I would have been interested in a short in the 98.50 area because it was a nice lvn from the past week of trading, & it was basically the low from 7/22 & 7/25.
Trade 1: Long 97.11 (10:00)
Why: As I went over in the last post, opening drive opens (where the opening print is the low/high of the day up to that point) makes the open even more important, because its also going to function as the high/low of the day & IB high/low. I never really like to fade this kind of open unless the market PROVES to me that we are no longer 1 time framing in the direction of the opening drive, or we approach a major area to do business in the composite. So right after the # came out at 10 we retested the open at 97.11 which is where I got long. Again, if we were going to continue to move up, this is the area that we should have held. We moved back up like 30 ticks, I got 1 scale off, then was stopped flat when we broke through the open to the downside.
Trade 2: Short 97.09 (10:05)
Why: If we were gonna head back up, we should have held the open, & we didnt, so I took the short just under the open, I ended up eating 10 ticks on this trade, it went just high enough back above the open to headfake me....its the cost of business using this style.
Trade 3: Short 97.06 (10:12)
Why: Same reason as trade 2, when we dropped back under the open, I just wanted to see a 1 min candle hold under the open before I got back in, so entered short again right after that just under the open, looking for a test of prev days range.
Result: We made it down to test fridays high, got a tiny bounce, then dropped back into fridays range, I ended up closing the trade out at fridays low around 95, for lil over 2 bucks.
As a side note: If I was not already short, I would have got short as soon as dropped back into fridays range.
Trade 4: Long 94.98 (11:02)
Why: We held Fridays low on a 2nd retest, & I had just covered the rest of my short, so tried the long, w/ a stop under 94.86 (& would have flipped short if stopped). This was only a 1/2 size trade because of the context of the day (we were 350 ticks off the high of the day). I got 2 scaled & was stopped for +1 tick on the rest.
Trade 5: Short 94:84
Why: We broke under Fridays low.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
7/26/11 Tuesdays Action
What up Tweeps, I wanted to go over Tuesdays action, as it was a big outside day, & we had some really nice setups.....so here we go!
Reminder: Red line=open Yellow lines=IB high/low Purple lines=yday high/low
Trade 1. Short 99.70 (9:01)
Why: We opened right on Mondays high to the tick, these are always the best opens, because we almost always pick a direction, & commit. Because we didnt get a print over .77 in the first min, I viewed it as an opening drive down, so I took the short, w/ .77 (yday high & 2day open) as my backstop.
Result: We ended up pushing through Mondays low as 98.52, then headed to THE low volume node on my 30 min composite at 97.75, I covered the rest just in front of it.
Trade 2. Long 97.79 (9:44)
Why: This (99.75) was THE low volume node on my composite, so if we were gonna bounce, it was gonna be here. Wish I could have saved a snap shot of it before the open, to show...
Result: I put my stop at breakeven after it moved 50 ticks in my favor, but it came back & stopped me flat, head fake #1 for the day....
Trade 3. Long 97.80 (10:07)
Why: Same reasons as trade #2, but now the IB was complete w/ the IB low at 97.80, lining up right w/ the lvn....very good, high probability setup.
Result: Got the bounce I was looking for, w/ fridays low as my main target at 98.52
Trade 3.5. Added Long 98.53 (10:46)
Why: I almost never do this, but I added to winner because I scaled heavy just in front of mondays low at 98.52, but then when we busted right through it I added back on what I had taken off because when we pushed & held mondays low, I knew the other timeframe buyers were in control, & we had a great chance to make it back to the open.
Result: We made it back to open almost where I got a scale off, then I ended up (dumbly) bailing at 99.25 on the rest because 99.77 was such a big area in the day timeframe I didnt think we would get through it.
Trade 4. Long 99.80 (12:06)
Why: 99.77 was mondays high, todays open, & todays IB high, not to mention w/ opening drive opens, the open becomes even more important as a reference point. Everyone that gets short has there stops above here, & this was such a big area, that fact that we pushed through it should have screamed at everyone that we were not done yet with the upside push yet. So I hit the offer, & didnt want to see it back under .77.
Result: I got a scale off at 100.50, then got stopped on the rest when dropped back under 100.
Trade 5. Short 99.81 (1:41)
Why: Again 99.77 was such an important area in the day timeframe this day, that if we were gonna head higher we should have held it (yday high, 2day open, 2day IB high)
Result: I didnt manage my risk very well, & ended up taking a loss when it got back over 100. Head fake #2.
Trade 6. Short 99.77 (2:09)
Why: Same reason as trade 4...it would have worked if we had more time, just ran out of time.
Result: closed out at the close
Reminder: Red line=open Yellow lines=IB high/low Purple lines=yday high/low
Trade 1. Short 99.70 (9:01)
Why: We opened right on Mondays high to the tick, these are always the best opens, because we almost always pick a direction, & commit. Because we didnt get a print over .77 in the first min, I viewed it as an opening drive down, so I took the short, w/ .77 (yday high & 2day open) as my backstop.
Result: We ended up pushing through Mondays low as 98.52, then headed to THE low volume node on my 30 min composite at 97.75, I covered the rest just in front of it.
Trade 2. Long 97.79 (9:44)
Why: This (99.75) was THE low volume node on my composite, so if we were gonna bounce, it was gonna be here. Wish I could have saved a snap shot of it before the open, to show...
Result: I put my stop at breakeven after it moved 50 ticks in my favor, but it came back & stopped me flat, head fake #1 for the day....
Trade 3. Long 97.80 (10:07)
Why: Same reasons as trade #2, but now the IB was complete w/ the IB low at 97.80, lining up right w/ the lvn....very good, high probability setup.
Result: Got the bounce I was looking for, w/ fridays low as my main target at 98.52
Trade 3.5. Added Long 98.53 (10:46)
Why: I almost never do this, but I added to winner because I scaled heavy just in front of mondays low at 98.52, but then when we busted right through it I added back on what I had taken off because when we pushed & held mondays low, I knew the other timeframe buyers were in control, & we had a great chance to make it back to the open.
Result: We made it back to open almost where I got a scale off, then I ended up (dumbly) bailing at 99.25 on the rest because 99.77 was such a big area in the day timeframe I didnt think we would get through it.
Trade 4. Long 99.80 (12:06)
Why: 99.77 was mondays high, todays open, & todays IB high, not to mention w/ opening drive opens, the open becomes even more important as a reference point. Everyone that gets short has there stops above here, & this was such a big area, that fact that we pushed through it should have screamed at everyone that we were not done yet with the upside push yet. So I hit the offer, & didnt want to see it back under .77.
Result: I got a scale off at 100.50, then got stopped on the rest when dropped back under 100.
Trade 5. Short 99.81 (1:41)
Why: Again 99.77 was such an important area in the day timeframe this day, that if we were gonna head higher we should have held it (yday high, 2day open, 2day IB high)
Result: I didnt manage my risk very well, & ended up taking a loss when it got back over 100. Head fake #2.
Trade 6. Short 99.77 (2:09)
Why: Same reason as trade 4...it would have worked if we had more time, just ran out of time.
Result: closed out at the close
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
7/19/11 Tues Rollover
YO, sorry I've been really lazy w/ the blog, but we had a great trading day in crude today so I wanted to be sure to do a review of my trades, & the setups I took. A lot of days in oil the the opening swing isnt very clear, but today it played a pretty big role.
Trade 1: Long 97.64 (9:04)
My Thinking: I actually had a short bias coming into the day, but that went right out the window when we got an opening drive up open (basically where the open is the low print). And as you all should know, your fighting the odds big time trying to fade any kind of opening drive unless it trades through & holds its open. I waited for crude to come back & test the open, which it did at 9:03, so I took the long at 97.64, w/ the open as my backstop, & would have flipped it short had we traded through the open. I tweeted this a couple minutes after I got in "Staying long unless we trade back through the open"
Result: I admittedly got really greedy with this trade & was a richard for a tick & ended up giving back way too much on this one, but I just didnt really see any reason why we wouldn't get to 99 on this push (we ended up getting it later almost) Got a scale off at 98.64 which I tweeted, then watched it drip all the way back under 98, where I bailed on it at 98.10. 100 ticks on best out, 50 on most of it...
Trade 2: Short half 98.12 (11:47)
My Thinking: I was pretty surprised we had blead all the way back down to the Opening Swing high at 97.93, but I hadn't seen any real buyers come through on the tape since 9:30ish, and we were in a spot where if we were gonna head back up it shouldnt have come down this far. And since the double top, the down rotations where ALL bigger then the up's on the 1 min. So I took this short as 98.20 which was a low volume node as my back stop looking for a test of the open again. Not the greatest risk/reward, so thats why only a 1/2 position.
Result: Got stopped for -8 ticks...it went just above where I didnt want to see it, so I got shaked out, it happens at least once a day for me usually.
Trade 3: Short half 98.15 (12:02)
My Thinking: We dropped right back under 98.20....so I figured that I had just got shaken, and the same setup was still in tact.
Result: Took a scale at the O/S high, & at Fridays high (97.74)....we came back & retest the O/S high, this is where I tweeted "shorts probably want O/S high to hold here" it held, so I actually thought that the shorts where in business, but when we didnt even make it back down to the open, and push back above the O/S high, I knew shorts had lost control again, and bailed at 98, best out was 35 ticks.
Trade 4: Long 98 (1:03)
My Thinking: We couldnt even make it down to the open, and reclaimed the O/S high, so took the long at 98, w/ the O/S high as my backstop.
Result: I have to thank Obama for a lot of this one....he said something that sent the dollar down, so of course crude ripped. I expecting it to just drift back up like it had drifted back down earlier...but thanks Obama! I ended up bailing on it at the IB high at 98.76.
Trade 5: Short 98.74 (1:33)
My Thinking: Yall should be very fimilliar with this setup by now, I think its been on every post, lol. We probed through the IB high, tagged my upside target for the day (99) then dropped back into the IB. So I took the short w/ the IB as my backstop
Result: Took a -5 tick loss at 98.81...it head faked me...again
Trade 6: Short 98.74 (1:47)
My Thinking: Exact same setup, except this time I felt a lot better about it because when you drop back in multipule times you almost always rotate back to value.
Result: Yahtzee.....dropped right back to the O/S high, & went flat at the close at 97.85....this is probably my favorite play if you havent noticed.
Trade 1: Long 97.64 (9:04)
My Thinking: I actually had a short bias coming into the day, but that went right out the window when we got an opening drive up open (basically where the open is the low print). And as you all should know, your fighting the odds big time trying to fade any kind of opening drive unless it trades through & holds its open. I waited for crude to come back & test the open, which it did at 9:03, so I took the long at 97.64, w/ the open as my backstop, & would have flipped it short had we traded through the open. I tweeted this a couple minutes after I got in "Staying long unless we trade back through the open"
Result: I admittedly got really greedy with this trade & was a richard for a tick & ended up giving back way too much on this one, but I just didnt really see any reason why we wouldn't get to 99 on this push (we ended up getting it later almost) Got a scale off at 98.64 which I tweeted, then watched it drip all the way back under 98, where I bailed on it at 98.10. 100 ticks on best out, 50 on most of it...
Trade 2: Short half 98.12 (11:47)
My Thinking: I was pretty surprised we had blead all the way back down to the Opening Swing high at 97.93, but I hadn't seen any real buyers come through on the tape since 9:30ish, and we were in a spot where if we were gonna head back up it shouldnt have come down this far. And since the double top, the down rotations where ALL bigger then the up's on the 1 min. So I took this short as 98.20 which was a low volume node as my back stop looking for a test of the open again. Not the greatest risk/reward, so thats why only a 1/2 position.
Result: Got stopped for -8 ticks...it went just above where I didnt want to see it, so I got shaked out, it happens at least once a day for me usually.
Trade 3: Short half 98.15 (12:02)
My Thinking: We dropped right back under 98.20....so I figured that I had just got shaken, and the same setup was still in tact.
Result: Took a scale at the O/S high, & at Fridays high (97.74)....we came back & retest the O/S high, this is where I tweeted "shorts probably want O/S high to hold here" it held, so I actually thought that the shorts where in business, but when we didnt even make it back down to the open, and push back above the O/S high, I knew shorts had lost control again, and bailed at 98, best out was 35 ticks.
Trade 4: Long 98 (1:03)
My Thinking: We couldnt even make it down to the open, and reclaimed the O/S high, so took the long at 98, w/ the O/S high as my backstop.
Result: I have to thank Obama for a lot of this one....he said something that sent the dollar down, so of course crude ripped. I expecting it to just drift back up like it had drifted back down earlier...but thanks Obama! I ended up bailing on it at the IB high at 98.76.
Trade 5: Short 98.74 (1:33)
My Thinking: Yall should be very fimilliar with this setup by now, I think its been on every post, lol. We probed through the IB high, tagged my upside target for the day (99) then dropped back into the IB. So I took the short w/ the IB as my backstop
Result: Took a -5 tick loss at 98.81...it head faked me...again
Trade 6: Short 98.74 (1:47)
My Thinking: Exact same setup, except this time I felt a lot better about it because when you drop back in multipule times you almost always rotate back to value.
Result: Yahtzee.....dropped right back to the O/S high, & went flat at the close at 97.85....this is probably my favorite play if you havent noticed.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Wild Wed
Hey Guys, sorry I haven't been around much this week, my girlfriend of 5 1/2 years broke up w/ me last week so I wasn't really in the right state of mind to be trading (we actually just got back together today so everything is good now). Anyways I felt good enough to trade Wed as is, thank God, because we had the perfect, perfect, once a month setup, and let me tell you, Mav loaded the boat, & this 1 trade made my whole week. So let jump right in, here is my review of Wed trades and why I took them. I'm just gonna go over the trades I took from 9-12, because I dont want to get into my other trades I took later in the day so people dont get confused, because once we move far enough away from the IB, my style takes on a different look (more of a trend trader) and because its gonna stretch the chart out and make it hard to see.
Red line: Opening price
Yellow line: IB high/low
Purple line: Yday high
Trade 1: Long 98.27
My Thinking: After the first 2 min of trading we could only push down 7 ticks under the open, we had a gap above us, and yday vpoc just above us, so once we traded back through the open and I saw it hold, I took the long and basically rode it up to fill the gap.
Trade 2: Short 99.29
My Thinking: The inventory # came out (dont even know what it was, & dont care) but we spiked through the IB high, then dropped right back through it, where I hit the bid, and rode it back down 50 ticks to the "scene of the crime" were we trading at right before the #. I actually though it was gonna go lower from there, but then grinded right back up the IB high where it stopped me flat.
Trade 3: Long 99.32
My Thinking: If we were gonna head lower we shouldnt have traded back above the IB high, so I took the long. Yday high was just above us here, so it was an area I was watching very close and knew it would be key for the rest of the day. My best out on this trade was again only 50 ticks, because we dropped back under Tuesdays high where I went flat.
Trade 4: Short 99.47
My Thinking: If it was gonna hold and go higher, I was expecting a quick bounce off of Tuesdays high, but instead we just chopped right on it for 5 min, this is very telling, this is where the all important factor of time comes into play. If it was gonna continue higher it should have just re-tested it real quick, then moved away, but it did just the opposite, so I took the short right at Tuesdays high.
Trade 5: Added Short at 99.30
My Thinking: I hate hate hate adding to trades, but this setup was the once a month 95% probability setup, and here is why: we had every reason to hold this area, we had Tuesdays high, Tuesdays close/gap at 99.46, and the IB high at 99.30, WE COULDN'T HOLD ANY OF THEM! Just not holding 1 of those areas is usually enough for me to make a trade, and all 3 were within 20 ticks. As soon as we dropped back into the IB I was licking my chops, and loaded the freakin boat short just in front of the IB high, and knew I was wrong if it traded back above 99.46. Two min later we puked right back down to the open, then later we dropped to Tuesdays low (97.10) where I closed the trade out for 250 ticks! (Then right after that, I got short again when we lost Tuesdays low to the downside for another 200 ticks, unreal day.
Let me know if you have any questions
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Red line: Opening price
Yellow line: IB high/low
Purple line: Yday high
Trade 1: Long 98.27
My Thinking: After the first 2 min of trading we could only push down 7 ticks under the open, we had a gap above us, and yday vpoc just above us, so once we traded back through the open and I saw it hold, I took the long and basically rode it up to fill the gap.
Trade 2: Short 99.29
My Thinking: The inventory # came out (dont even know what it was, & dont care) but we spiked through the IB high, then dropped right back through it, where I hit the bid, and rode it back down 50 ticks to the "scene of the crime" were we trading at right before the #. I actually though it was gonna go lower from there, but then grinded right back up the IB high where it stopped me flat.
Trade 3: Long 99.32
My Thinking: If we were gonna head lower we shouldnt have traded back above the IB high, so I took the long. Yday high was just above us here, so it was an area I was watching very close and knew it would be key for the rest of the day. My best out on this trade was again only 50 ticks, because we dropped back under Tuesdays high where I went flat.
Trade 4: Short 99.47
My Thinking: If it was gonna hold and go higher, I was expecting a quick bounce off of Tuesdays high, but instead we just chopped right on it for 5 min, this is very telling, this is where the all important factor of time comes into play. If it was gonna continue higher it should have just re-tested it real quick, then moved away, but it did just the opposite, so I took the short right at Tuesdays high.
Trade 5: Added Short at 99.30
My Thinking: I hate hate hate adding to trades, but this setup was the once a month 95% probability setup, and here is why: we had every reason to hold this area, we had Tuesdays high, Tuesdays close/gap at 99.46, and the IB high at 99.30, WE COULDN'T HOLD ANY OF THEM! Just not holding 1 of those areas is usually enough for me to make a trade, and all 3 were within 20 ticks. As soon as we dropped back into the IB I was licking my chops, and loaded the freakin boat short just in front of the IB high, and knew I was wrong if it traded back above 99.46. Two min later we puked right back down to the open, then later we dropped to Tuesdays low (97.10) where I closed the trade out for 250 ticks! (Then right after that, I got short again when we lost Tuesdays low to the downside for another 200 ticks, unreal day.
Let me know if you have any questions
Monday, June 13, 2011
Monday Naz trading prev days range
Just a quick post on trading yday range in the Nasdaq today, will try to do one on oil later if I have time (was def not as easy a day in oil, but we still got nice setups later in the day).
Pretty cut and dry here, we auctioned below Frydays low, were I took the short, got 1 scale off, then was stopped flat and flipped when we auctioned back into Frydays range, where we got a nice trade off. And where did we auction right back to when we failed to hold the breakout of Frydays low? If you answered todays VPOC you are correct.
Pretty cut and dry here, we auctioned below Frydays low, were I took the short, got 1 scale off, then was stopped flat and flipped when we auctioned back into Frydays range, where we got a nice trade off. And where did we auction right back to when we failed to hold the breakout of Frydays low? If you answered todays VPOC you are correct.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Wed 6/8/11 OPEC
Hello tweeps, a little better volatility today, and we got some nice high probability setups today. The first two trades, I was obviously just playing yday range, took a loss on the first trade when I tried to short at yday high, but then flipped it quickly for a nice trade.
I think the only trade that probably needs explanation is the long at 100.50. My thinking was, we had such bullish price action up to that point, bounced off the composite vpoc on this range we have been in for 2 weeks twice (buying value) we had basically a perfect bull flag on the 5 min, had 5 higher highs on the 1 min, basically everything was saying higher, so thats why I took the long there. Then the last trade, took the short because we dropped back into the IB and basically moved right down to todays vpoc, pretty textbook. Let me know if you have any questions.
Yellow lines are IB high/low
Red line is opening price
Purple line is yday high
-Mav
I think the only trade that probably needs explanation is the long at 100.50. My thinking was, we had such bullish price action up to that point, bounced off the composite vpoc on this range we have been in for 2 weeks twice (buying value) we had basically a perfect bull flag on the 5 min, had 5 higher highs on the 1 min, basically everything was saying higher, so thats why I took the long there. Then the last trade, took the short because we dropped back into the IB and basically moved right down to todays vpoc, pretty textbook. Let me know if you have any questions.
Yellow lines are IB high/low
Red line is opening price
Purple line is yday high
Monday, June 6, 2011
Trade review of Monday 6/6/11
Hey tweeps, you guys know the drill by now, this is just a review of the trades I took today, and why I took them.
Chart notes: Red line is opening price, yellow lines are IB high/low, Longs are green print, Shorts are red print
Trade 1: Long 99.20
My Thinking: The 99.08 area had been key from Friday, as we bounced off it 3 times, we then traded back through opening price, so I took the stab long (only 1/2 size) w/ a stop just under opening price looking for a test of the low volume node (LVN) we had at 99.85ish, and maybe get to the composite high volume node (CHVN) just above it in the 100.20 area.
Result: Got lucky and we moved straight up from there, scaled at 99.60, 99.85, & came 15 ticks from closing me out at 100.20, but I stopped out when we lost the lvn at 99.85 and couldn't make it up to the chvn (which I really expected us too)
Trade 2: Long 99.18
My Thinking: I was really just looking for about a .50 cent bounce here when it appeared we had bounced off the open, and we had a fairly poor high.
Result: Got 1 scale off then was stopped flat, hindsight, I should have taken the short when we rejected 99.85 on the re-test and couldnt auction up to the CHVN aka we were selling value, and when that happens we almost always go lower.
Trade 3: Short 99.18
My Thinking: We had range extension lower, and actually got back into the IB, but I figured the risk was larger on long attempts at this point. This is a trade that I was only going to give about 7 ticks & if we pushed through and held the open I would have flipped it.
Result: We auctioned back out of the IB which was what I really wanted to see, but I only got off 2 scales as we bounced right back up into the IB where I closed it out.
Trade 4: Long 98.99
My Thinking: Yall should be familiar w/ this play by now, if were gonna go, were gonna go, were not gonna keep coming back into the IB aka failed breakout so we "should" return to value (vpoc). I also saw some nice size buy blocks go through on the tape, so I front ran it a little bit right in front of the IB low.
Result: Textbook, failed breakout, return to vpoc where I closed out at the LVN we had failed at earlier in the day at 99.85.
And that was it, not my best day tick wise but for a Monday in front of the OPEC meeting, I'll take it. We should see some nice moves later in the week. It depends on what the OPEC folks have to say, but I think we see a very nice push down at some point, price action the past week has been pointing lower, hence why I have a nice position in SCO (the double short oil etf). Any questions/comments/ideas tweet me or just post them on here.
-Mav
Chart notes: Red line is opening price, yellow lines are IB high/low, Longs are green print, Shorts are red print
Trade 1: Long 99.20
My Thinking: The 99.08 area had been key from Friday, as we bounced off it 3 times, we then traded back through opening price, so I took the stab long (only 1/2 size) w/ a stop just under opening price looking for a test of the low volume node (LVN) we had at 99.85ish, and maybe get to the composite high volume node (CHVN) just above it in the 100.20 area.
Result: Got lucky and we moved straight up from there, scaled at 99.60, 99.85, & came 15 ticks from closing me out at 100.20, but I stopped out when we lost the lvn at 99.85 and couldn't make it up to the chvn (which I really expected us too)
Trade 2: Long 99.18
My Thinking: I was really just looking for about a .50 cent bounce here when it appeared we had bounced off the open, and we had a fairly poor high.
Result: Got 1 scale off then was stopped flat, hindsight, I should have taken the short when we rejected 99.85 on the re-test and couldnt auction up to the CHVN aka we were selling value, and when that happens we almost always go lower.
Trade 3: Short 99.18
My Thinking: We had range extension lower, and actually got back into the IB, but I figured the risk was larger on long attempts at this point. This is a trade that I was only going to give about 7 ticks & if we pushed through and held the open I would have flipped it.
Result: We auctioned back out of the IB which was what I really wanted to see, but I only got off 2 scales as we bounced right back up into the IB where I closed it out.
Trade 4: Long 98.99
My Thinking: Yall should be familiar w/ this play by now, if were gonna go, were gonna go, were not gonna keep coming back into the IB aka failed breakout so we "should" return to value (vpoc). I also saw some nice size buy blocks go through on the tape, so I front ran it a little bit right in front of the IB low.
Result: Textbook, failed breakout, return to vpoc where I closed out at the LVN we had failed at earlier in the day at 99.85.
And that was it, not my best day tick wise but for a Monday in front of the OPEC meeting, I'll take it. We should see some nice moves later in the week. It depends on what the OPEC folks have to say, but I think we see a very nice push down at some point, price action the past week has been pointing lower, hence why I have a nice position in SCO (the double short oil etf). Any questions/comments/ideas tweet me or just post them on here.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Titty Tuesday
Hello Tweeps, just a quick review of todays trades on my side and why I took them. In full disclosure I'm leaving out about 70% of the trades I took today because I definitely over traded today especially in the early going, and would take 4 pages to go through them all, so I just picked out my 4 best trades for the day. (which really should have been my only 4)
Side Note: Red horizontal line is opening price, yellow horizontal line is IB's, purple horizontal line is ydays high, shorts r red type, longs r green type
Trade 1: Long 99.45 (10:09)
My Thinking: We had just had some range extension to the upside, it was a pretty poor high, and we were holding above the open.
Result: 2 scales, best out was IB high, closed it when we extended range & dropped back into IB
(Yes I could, and should have flipped and got short when we dropped back into IB, but this play presented itself several times as we will see)
Trade 2: Long 99.50 (10:59)
My Thinking: Basically same ideas as trade 1, and I flipped a couples times before this trade when we broke under the open, then back above, then back under.....but at this point I asked myself those 3 key questions, what have done, what are we trying to do, how well are we doing it, and I couldnt really answer long on that last question (mainly because of a very, very, poor high on the last range extension and we kept dropping back into the IB), so my internal bullish/bearish was starting to change even though my best trades where to the long side at this point.
Result: Same as trade 1 (And yes, I should have flipped it again when we dropped back into the IB)
Trade 3 Short 99.88 (11:16)
My Thinking: We finally get a lil selling tail, aka not a poor high, and dropped straight back into the IB. This was the same play we hit yesterday re: trade 5 (except it was a long), if its gonna go, it shouldn't keep dropping back into the IB.
Result: Great trade, closed out the runners at 98.15 because we couldnt stay out of ydays range for 173 ticks
Trade 4 Long 98.17 (12:35)
My Thinking: The same reason I covered the short from trade 3, and was the entire post of Blog post 2; couldnt hold ydays range (failed breakout) so theres only 1 thing to look for, return to that days value. I tweeted about this 1 as it was happening, basically saying you have to look long unless we drop back below 98.13 (which it held to the tick on the re-test a couple min later)
Result: I actually ended up adding to this trade when we held 98.13 on the re-test, so this was actually my best trade even though it was for less tick. Closed it out at 99.45 which was the VPOC for the day for 128 ticks, this was about as textbook as it gets.
Here is the chart:
Side Note: Red horizontal line is opening price, yellow horizontal line is IB's, purple horizontal line is ydays high, shorts r red type, longs r green type
Trade 1: Long 99.45 (10:09)
My Thinking: We had just had some range extension to the upside, it was a pretty poor high, and we were holding above the open.
Result: 2 scales, best out was IB high, closed it when we extended range & dropped back into IB
(Yes I could, and should have flipped and got short when we dropped back into IB, but this play presented itself several times as we will see)
Trade 2: Long 99.50 (10:59)
My Thinking: Basically same ideas as trade 1, and I flipped a couples times before this trade when we broke under the open, then back above, then back under.....but at this point I asked myself those 3 key questions, what have done, what are we trying to do, how well are we doing it, and I couldnt really answer long on that last question (mainly because of a very, very, poor high on the last range extension and we kept dropping back into the IB), so my internal bullish/bearish was starting to change even though my best trades where to the long side at this point.
Result: Same as trade 1 (And yes, I should have flipped it again when we dropped back into the IB)
Trade 3 Short 99.88 (11:16)
My Thinking: We finally get a lil selling tail, aka not a poor high, and dropped straight back into the IB. This was the same play we hit yesterday re: trade 5 (except it was a long), if its gonna go, it shouldn't keep dropping back into the IB.
Result: Great trade, closed out the runners at 98.15 because we couldnt stay out of ydays range for 173 ticks
Trade 4 Long 98.17 (12:35)
My Thinking: The same reason I covered the short from trade 3, and was the entire post of Blog post 2; couldnt hold ydays range (failed breakout) so theres only 1 thing to look for, return to that days value. I tweeted about this 1 as it was happening, basically saying you have to look long unless we drop back below 98.13 (which it held to the tick on the re-test a couple min later)
Result: I actually ended up adding to this trade when we held 98.13 on the re-test, so this was actually my best trade even though it was for less tick. Closed it out at 99.45 which was the VPOC for the day for 128 ticks, this was about as textbook as it gets.
Here is the chart:
Monday, May 23, 2011
Monday Funday...not
I've been trying to figure out the best way for peeps to learn, & really the only thing that I could really come up w/ is to just go over the trades I make for the day, and then explain why I took each trade. If anyone has any suggestions feel free to comment below. So, lets review Monday fundays action:
(Side Notes): red horizontal line is opening price, yellow horizontal lines are IB's, long are in green, shorts red, trades are # in order of when I took them
Coming into the day, given Opex on Fryday, and a 3 dollar gapdown, I thought we would be in for a good day w/ large swings & some nice trading opportunities, we still got some high % trades today, just not much of a range, (only 1.76). I took 5 trades today, and you'll notice that in the first 4 I was stopped out flat on half, or took a loss, mostly because I was expecting to much.
Trade 1: Short at 97.31 (9:22)
My Thinking: We pretty much had an opening drive down w/ basically the open being the high of the day at that point, I actually though we were just gonna head straight down & test Frydays lows, but we stopped about 20 ticks in front of it. So as we climbed back up to approach the open, I knew I wanted to try & fade the opening price on a re-test, because its a high % trade w/ a opening drive open, & I would know quickly if I was wrong.
Result: Got 2 scales off, w/ best out of 30 ticks, then stopped flat
Trade 2: Long at 97.18 (9:37)
My Thinking: No real market profile logic on this trade, just more of a "pattern recognition" trade. On trade 1 I again expected us to go test Frydays lows, and when we couldnt even make it back down to todays current low (96.53), re-tested the open a 3rd time, and then took the long looking for an explosive move higher through the open. Because I was looking for a quick explosion & didnt really have an area that I was leaning on, it was a 1/2 size trade w/ a wider stop.
Result: Again only got 2 scales off w/ best out of 42 ticks, then stopped +.10 on the rest (didnt want to see it trade back through the open)
Trade 3: Short at 97.31 (10:30)
My Thinking: If we were gonna run to the upside, we shouldnt have traded back through the open, which is what I got short against, hindsight 20/20, should have been a little more patient on this trade.
Result: 10 tick loss
Trade 4: Short 97.32 (10:47)
My Thinking: My vwap held to the tick, made a 4th lower low, & traded back through the open again, so I hit the bid looking for us to freaking go test Frydays low.
Result: Got 2 scales off w/ best out of 72 ticks. Once we broke the IB, and came 2 ticks away from Frydays low, I was lickin my chops for us to puke, but no, we got back into the IB (shouldnt have happened if we were to puke) so I covered the rest after a second attempt out of the IB, then back in.
Trade 5: Long 96.54 (11:36)
My Thinking: This trade was a gift from the market Gods, after no interest in anything below the IB, & coming 2 ticks short of Frydays low (re: blog post 2, failed breakout ring a bell?), the odds were pretty good the low of the day was in. I almost jumped the gun again on this one and was thinking about getting in 1/2 size at 96.75, but just before my patience was about to run out, we came down & tested the IB low one more time to tick, which is where I got long at, looking for a trip back to todays VPOC at the minimum (cant remember what it was at the moment like 97.27 or something)
Result: Trade was closed just in front of IB high, for +130 ticks
Aight well here is the chart to help visualize, tweet me or post on here if you have any questions
(Side Notes): red horizontal line is opening price, yellow horizontal lines are IB's, long are in green, shorts red, trades are # in order of when I took them
Coming into the day, given Opex on Fryday, and a 3 dollar gapdown, I thought we would be in for a good day w/ large swings & some nice trading opportunities, we still got some high % trades today, just not much of a range, (only 1.76). I took 5 trades today, and you'll notice that in the first 4 I was stopped out flat on half, or took a loss, mostly because I was expecting to much.
Trade 1: Short at 97.31 (9:22)
My Thinking: We pretty much had an opening drive down w/ basically the open being the high of the day at that point, I actually though we were just gonna head straight down & test Frydays lows, but we stopped about 20 ticks in front of it. So as we climbed back up to approach the open, I knew I wanted to try & fade the opening price on a re-test, because its a high % trade w/ a opening drive open, & I would know quickly if I was wrong.
Result: Got 2 scales off, w/ best out of 30 ticks, then stopped flat
Trade 2: Long at 97.18 (9:37)
My Thinking: No real market profile logic on this trade, just more of a "pattern recognition" trade. On trade 1 I again expected us to go test Frydays lows, and when we couldnt even make it back down to todays current low (96.53), re-tested the open a 3rd time, and then took the long looking for an explosive move higher through the open. Because I was looking for a quick explosion & didnt really have an area that I was leaning on, it was a 1/2 size trade w/ a wider stop.
Result: Again only got 2 scales off w/ best out of 42 ticks, then stopped +.10 on the rest (didnt want to see it trade back through the open)
Trade 3: Short at 97.31 (10:30)
My Thinking: If we were gonna run to the upside, we shouldnt have traded back through the open, which is what I got short against, hindsight 20/20, should have been a little more patient on this trade.
Result: 10 tick loss
Trade 4: Short 97.32 (10:47)
My Thinking: My vwap held to the tick, made a 4th lower low, & traded back through the open again, so I hit the bid looking for us to freaking go test Frydays low.
Result: Got 2 scales off w/ best out of 72 ticks. Once we broke the IB, and came 2 ticks away from Frydays low, I was lickin my chops for us to puke, but no, we got back into the IB (shouldnt have happened if we were to puke) so I covered the rest after a second attempt out of the IB, then back in.
Trade 5: Long 96.54 (11:36)
My Thinking: This trade was a gift from the market Gods, after no interest in anything below the IB, & coming 2 ticks short of Frydays low (re: blog post 2, failed breakout ring a bell?), the odds were pretty good the low of the day was in. I almost jumped the gun again on this one and was thinking about getting in 1/2 size at 96.75, but just before my patience was about to run out, we came down & tested the IB low one more time to tick, which is where I got long at, looking for a trip back to todays VPOC at the minimum (cant remember what it was at the moment like 97.27 or something)
Result: Trade was closed just in front of IB high, for +130 ticks
Aight well here is the chart to help visualize, tweet me or post on here if you have any questions
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Previous Days Range 2/2
So basically what I do when we approach a previous days range, is consider a couple of different thing.
1. Are we in a gap opening? Gap higher? Gap lower?
2. Are we gapping in or out of the previous days value area? If we are gapping out of the previous days value area, we have better conditions & odds for a breakout. If we are gapping in the previous days value area, we have better odds for a failed breakout.
3. Where are we in relation to todays open? Above or below?
4. What type of open did we have? Open drive? Open test drive? Open rejection reverse? Open auction?
5. Who is in control? Other timeframe buyer? Other timeframe seller? Local?
6. Basically the same three questions FT-71 says you need to ask yourself all the time, What have we done, What are we trying to do, How well are we doing it.
So while the concept is simple, if its a failed breakout, fade it, if its a breakout, go with it, the execution in real time is almost never simple. The ABSOLUTE KEY for making this play work is you have to be able to flip your position on a dime, and quick, you can have NO BIAS going into it or you will get killed, you have to be happy wither it fails or breaks. You have to be willing to admit your wrong really quickly, some days I flip my position 3 times in a matter of minutes before I get a nice trade off. I'm almost always looking to fade initially, because almost always the odds are better for a failed breakout, and return to previous value or balance, but I'm always just as happy if I take a quick loss, flip, and we breakout. So lets go over a harder example of a day I had to flip multiple times before I got a good trade.
(the green lines are on the bars where the trades were placed)
Trade 1-short 97.50, got 1 scale off, then stopped flat
Trade 2-long 97.52, 0 scales, stopped flat
Trade 3 short 97.40, I think my best out was 100 ticks here
The Previous Days Range & Why It's So Important/How I Trade it 1/2
Soooo, why is the previous days range so important? There are several correct answers to this question;
1. The previous days range mark the outermost extremes the buyers & sellers could push us either way (duh, Captain Obvious).
2. When we reach these prior extremes, we know 1 of 2 things is going to happen; we either breakout and search for new value (p.s. value & balance are interchangeable), or we reject the breakout, and return to previous value (aka, auction failure)
3.Usually (barring "poor high/low", think time) the extremes form some kind of excess (think $9 coffee) and where excess is formed, is where we want to do business, because therein lies the greatest opportunity.
4. When a breakout happens, this tells us that the market is out of balance, and the upside/downside is unlimited.
The trade ideas I'm about to present seem and are easy in concept, but the execution is where it can get tricky.
So, lets start off w/ a easy-peasy example, & was actually a trade I took on twitter in the NQ last Thursday.
1. The previous days range mark the outermost extremes the buyers & sellers could push us either way (duh, Captain Obvious).
2. When we reach these prior extremes, we know 1 of 2 things is going to happen; we either breakout and search for new value (p.s. value & balance are interchangeable), or we reject the breakout, and return to previous value (aka, auction failure)
3.Usually (barring "poor high/low", think time) the extremes form some kind of excess (think $9 coffee) and where excess is formed, is where we want to do business, because therein lies the greatest opportunity.
4. When a breakout happens, this tells us that the market is out of balance, and the upside/downside is unlimited.
The trade ideas I'm about to present seem and are easy in concept, but the execution is where it can get tricky.
So, lets start off w/ a easy-peasy example, & was actually a trade I took on twitter in the NQ last Thursday.
MP Basics
Whats up Tweeps? I've been getting lots of request/questions on twitter about this topic so I'm officially starting the blog back up to try and answer questions, help people with their trading, and (hopefully) make more money. I'm certainly no English major, nor tech expert so bare with me on the formatting/spelling/wording because their is a reason I went into a business where I deal with numbers & not words or grammar. So without further adieu, lets jump right in.
First off, before we go over examples, lets go over a few very primary things central to Market Profile.
1. "The" market, any market; whither it be a car dealership, grocery store, or the futures & commodity market, are in existence for one reason, to facilitate trade, to bring buyers & sellers together in the same place at the same time to "do business."
2. The market is always looking for balance. Why? Because when we are in balance the most trade is facilitated, creating hvn's (high volume nodes) & satisfying the sole purpose of the market. If the market is not facilitating enough trade, then it will move either to 1 extreme or the other in the hopes of facilitating the most amount of trade.
3. The market will continue to move in one direction until price is perceived as either unfairly too high or too low.
4. Price needs to go too far in one direction before value can be found. For example, lets take your hometown Starbucks; their selling cups of coffee as fast as they can make them for 2 dollars a piece, good price right? So to increase profits, Starbucks raises the price to 3 bucks, still a good price, and they still sell the coffee as fast as then can make it. The same thing happens at a price of 4 & 5, but now Starbucks starts to get a little greedy, & they raise the price to 9 dollars a cup, not such an artractive price, the customer (the buyer) no longer finds value in a 9 dollar cup of coffee, traffic in the store drops 75%, and where buyers used to lineup to buy, then no longer do. Starbucks (the seller) is forced to drop price back to where the customer found value in their coffee, all the way back down to 5 dollars. The point being that there was no way to know at what price the customer wouldn't find value in the coffee until the price went to high. This is a very basic & crude example, but you get the idea.
5. Time....one of the more forgotten aspects in trading, but it is the ultimate controlling factor. I could do a whole blog post on time, but the most important thing about it is its relationship to price rejections & auction failures. When you get a clean rejection of a price, or a clean breakout, esp in crude, price aint gonna stay there for long, usually not even a full second. When you hear me say something about a poor high or a poor low, this is the principle I'm referring to. It's usually because we fiddle-farted around, lazily walked up to an area of interest, then lazily moved away from the area, its because of the time factor that makes it a poor extreme. Buyers weren't standing in a line outside the door, clawing and scratching to get their 2 dollar coffee, because if they were, thats when u get the really fast moves, and the greatest opportunity. Highway to the Danger Zone!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rZWw9HE7o
-Mav
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