Monday, May 23, 2011

Monday Funday...not

I've been trying to figure out the best way for peeps to learn, & really the only thing that I could really come up w/ is to just go over the trades I make for the day, and then explain why I took each trade. If anyone has any suggestions feel free to comment below. So, lets review Monday fundays action:
(Side Notes): red horizontal line is opening price, yellow horizontal lines are IB's, long are in green, shorts red, trades are # in order of when I took them

Coming into the day, given Opex on Fryday, and a 3 dollar gapdown, I thought we would be in for a good day w/ large swings & some nice trading opportunities, we still got some high % trades today, just not much of a range, (only 1.76). I took 5 trades today, and you'll notice that in the first 4 I was stopped out flat on half, or took a loss, mostly because I was expecting to much.

Trade 1: Short at 97.31 (9:22)
My Thinking: We pretty much had an opening drive down w/ basically the open being the high of the day at that point, I actually though we were just gonna head straight down & test Frydays lows, but we stopped about 20 ticks in front of it. So as we climbed back up to approach the open, I knew I wanted to try & fade the opening price on a re-test, because its a high % trade w/ a opening drive open, & I would know quickly if I was wrong.
Result: Got 2 scales off, w/ best out of 30 ticks, then stopped flat

Trade 2: Long at 97.18 (9:37)
My Thinking: No real market profile logic on this trade, just more of a "pattern recognition" trade. On trade 1 I again expected us to go test Frydays lows, and when we couldnt even make it back down to todays current low (96.53), re-tested the open a 3rd time, and then took the long looking for an explosive move higher through the open. Because I was looking for a quick explosion & didnt really have an area that I was leaning on, it was a 1/2 size trade w/ a wider stop.
Result: Again only got 2 scales off w/ best out of 42 ticks, then stopped +.10 on the rest (didnt want to see it trade back through the open)

Trade 3: Short at 97.31 (10:30)
My Thinking: If we were gonna run to the upside, we shouldnt have traded back through the open, which is what I got short against, hindsight 20/20, should have been a little more patient on this trade.
Result: 10 tick loss

Trade 4: Short 97.32 (10:47)
My Thinking: My vwap held to the tick, made a 4th lower low, & traded back through the open again, so I hit the bid looking for us to freaking go test Frydays low.
Result: Got 2 scales off w/ best out of 72 ticks. Once we broke the IB, and came 2 ticks away from Frydays low, I was lickin my chops for us to puke, but no, we got back into the IB (shouldnt have happened if we were to puke) so I covered the rest after a second attempt out of the IB, then back in.

Trade 5: Long 96.54 (11:36)
My Thinking: This trade was a gift from the market Gods, after no interest in anything below the IB, & coming 2 ticks short of Frydays low (re: blog post 2, failed breakout ring a bell?), the odds were pretty good the low of the day was in. I almost jumped the gun again on this one and was thinking about getting in 1/2 size at 96.75, but just before my patience was about to run out, we came down & tested the IB low one more time to tick, which is where I got long at, looking for a trip back to todays VPOC at the minimum (cant remember what it was at the moment like 97.27 or something)
Result: Trade was closed just in front of IB high, for +130 ticks

Aight well here is the chart to help visualize, tweet me or post on here if you have any questions

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