7/19/11 Tues Rollover

YO, sorry I've been really lazy w/ the blog, but we had a great trading day in crude today so I wanted to be sure to do a review of my trades, & the setups I took. A lot of days in oil the the opening swing isnt very clear, but today it played a pretty big role.

Trade 1: Long 97.64 (9:04)
My Thinking: I actually had a short bias coming into the day, but that went right out the window when we got an opening drive up open (basically where the open is the low print). And as you all should know, your fighting the odds big time trying to fade any kind of opening drive unless it trades through & holds its open. I waited for crude to come back & test the open, which it did at 9:03, so I took the long at 97.64, w/ the open as my backstop, & would have flipped it short had we traded through the open. I tweeted this a couple minutes after I got in "Staying long unless we trade back through the open"
Result: I admittedly got really greedy with this trade & was a richard for a tick & ended up giving back way too much on this one, but I just didnt really see any reason why we wouldn't get to 99 on this push (we ended up getting it later almost) Got a scale off at 98.64 which I tweeted, then watched it drip all the way back under 98, where I bailed on it at 98.10. 100 ticks on best out, 50 on most of it...

Trade 2: Short half 98.12 (11:47)
My Thinking: I was pretty surprised we had blead all the way back down to the Opening Swing high at 97.93, but I hadn't seen any real buyers come through on the tape since 9:30ish, and we were in a spot where if we were gonna head back up it shouldnt have come down this far. And since the double top, the down rotations where ALL bigger then the up's on the 1 min. So I took this short as 98.20 which was a low volume node as my back stop looking for a test of the open again. Not the greatest risk/reward, so thats why only a 1/2 position.
Result: Got stopped for -8 ticks...it went just above where I didnt want to see it, so I got shaked out, it happens at least once a day for me usually.

Trade 3: Short half 98.15 (12:02)
My Thinking: We dropped right back under 98.20....so I figured that I had just got shaken, and the same setup was still in tact.
Result: Took a scale at the O/S high, & at Fridays high (97.74)....we came back & retest the O/S high, this is where I tweeted "shorts probably want O/S high to hold here" it held, so I actually thought that the shorts where in business, but when we didnt even make it back down to the open, and push back above the O/S high, I knew shorts had lost control again, and bailed at 98, best out was 35 ticks.

Trade 4: Long 98 (1:03)
My Thinking: We couldnt even make it down to the open, and reclaimed the O/S high, so took the long at 98, w/ the O/S high as my backstop.
Result: I have to thank Obama for a lot of this one....he said something that sent the dollar down, so of course crude ripped. I expecting it to just drift back up like it had drifted back down earlier...but thanks Obama! I ended up bailing on it at the IB high at 98.76.

Trade 5: Short 98.74 (1:33)
My Thinking: Yall should be very fimilliar with this setup by now, I think its been on every post, lol. We probed through the IB high, tagged my upside target for the day (99) then dropped back into the IB. So I took the short w/ the IB as my backstop
Result: Took a -5 tick loss at 98.81...it head faked me...again

Trade 6: Short 98.74 (1:47)
My Thinking: Exact same setup, except this time I felt a lot better about it because when you drop back in multipule times you almost always rotate back to value.
Result: Yahtzee.....dropped right back to the O/S high, & went flat at the close at 97.85....this is probably my favorite play if you havent noticed.