Market:__Crude____________________ Date:_______9/18_________
Attempted Direction: Both Buyer Seller
1. Rotation Factor ( 0 ) X X
2. Range Extension X X
3. Tails X
4. Buy/Selling Composite X X
5. Opening Type-Open auction in range
6. Day Type-Neutral Extreme
Overall Attempted Direction: Higher Lower Neutral
Comments: Going into the day we expected resposive buyers as we viewed Mondays late day selling as nothing more then long liquadation & not new sellers coming into the market. The first half of the trading we found resposive buyers but stalled out just short of our clvn at 97.05 which has been a key spot in this balance area from 8/13-9/16. But as you can see from the table above, BOTH timeframes were active today w/ a rotation factor of exactly zero, range extension to both side, almost got tails to both side, & a very balanced shape profile being it was a fairly nice bell curve shape. While we closed near the lows, our VPOC was at 96.40 for the Nov contract.
Directional Performance:
1. Volume:
Daily: ( 78K ) Higher Lower Unchanged
Auction Average: ( 128K ) Higher Lower Unchanged
2. Value-Area Placement
Higher OL/High Lower OL/Low Unchgd
3. Value-Area Width: Wider Average Narrower
Comments: Have to take the volume stats w/ grain of salt today & tomorrow w/ the contract rollover from Oct to Nov
Expected Results: With the market seeming to be in balance today we see no reason why it will not be again tomorrow until after inventories at 10:30. Would not surprise me to see to another Neurtal day w/ both timeframes again being active. The major downside reference is still going to be Mondays low which is very close to our clvn at 95.11, under that the old balance area low at 94.28 is the next major area w/ major clvn just under that at 94.10ish. To the upside, Mondays closing swing high (97.12) w/ our clvn at 97.05 is major area on top of us now. Above that the edge of the single prints from mondays drop is at 97.83 which always is a big area of interest if/when you re-test that area, any price exceptance above 97.83 would signal that the OTF buyers has regained control of the market. As always volume & TPO charts will be posted on my twitter feed in the morning & on charthub.com. Here is look at todays 5 min chart for crude.
As it stands now we will be opening outside of yday inside day. Anytime we open outside of the previous days range it lends itself to a good opening type (opening drive being my favorite). Mondays low will be a key reference point on the open, if we can trade & hold above it I like looking for longs & a push back to yday vpoc, under mondays low & holding will be looking for cont selling w/ old balance area low as the target.
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