Hey Guys, sorry I haven't been around much this week, my girlfriend of 5 1/2 years broke up w/ me last week so I wasn't really in the right state of mind to be trading (we actually just got back together today so everything is good now). Anyways I felt good enough to trade Wed as is, thank God, because we had the perfect, perfect, once a month setup, and let me tell you, Mav loaded the boat, & this 1 trade made my whole week. So let jump right in, here is my review of Wed trades and why I took them. I'm just gonna go over the trades I took from 9-12, because I dont want to get into my other trades I took later in the day so people dont get confused, because once we move far enough away from the IB, my style takes on a different look (more of a trend trader) and because its gonna stretch the chart out and make it hard to see.
Red line: Opening price
Yellow line: IB high/low
Purple line: Yday high
Trade 1: Long 98.27
My Thinking: After the first 2 min of trading we could only push down 7 ticks under the open, we had a gap above us, and yday vpoc just above us, so once we traded back through the open and I saw it hold, I took the long and basically rode it up to fill the gap.
Trade 2: Short 99.29
My Thinking: The inventory # came out (dont even know what it was, & dont care) but we spiked through the IB high, then dropped right back through it, where I hit the bid, and rode it back down 50 ticks to the "scene of the crime" were we trading at right before the #. I actually though it was gonna go lower from there, but then grinded right back up the IB high where it stopped me flat.
Trade 3: Long 99.32
My Thinking: If we were gonna head lower we shouldnt have traded back above the IB high, so I took the long. Yday high was just above us here, so it was an area I was watching very close and knew it would be key for the rest of the day. My best out on this trade was again only 50 ticks, because we dropped back under Tuesdays high where I went flat.
Trade 4: Short 99.47
My Thinking: If it was gonna hold and go higher, I was expecting a quick bounce off of Tuesdays high, but instead we just chopped right on it for 5 min, this is very telling, this is where the all important factor of time comes into play. If it was gonna continue higher it should have just re-tested it real quick, then moved away, but it did just the opposite, so I took the short right at Tuesdays high.
Trade 5: Added Short at 99.30
My Thinking: I hate hate hate adding to trades, but this setup was the once a month 95% probability setup, and here is why: we had every reason to hold this area, we had Tuesdays high, Tuesdays close/gap at 99.46, and the IB high at 99.30, WE COULDN'T HOLD ANY OF THEM! Just not holding 1 of those areas is usually enough for me to make a trade, and all 3 were within 20 ticks. As soon as we dropped back into the IB I was licking my chops, and loaded the freakin boat short just in front of the IB high, and knew I was wrong if it traded back above 99.46. Two min later we puked right back down to the open, then later we dropped to Tuesdays low (97.10) where I closed the trade out for 250 ticks! (Then right after that, I got short again when we lost Tuesdays low to the downside for another 200 ticks, unreal day.
Let me know if you have any questions
what does IB mean as mentioned in ur blog?.....And also could u post ur trades simultaneously while trading on TWITTER....coz it may help sophomores like me to trade with conviction
ReplyDeleteIB means Initial Balance, it is the high & low of the first hour (9-10 am est) for oil. For your 2nd comment, I'm a big believer of "give a man a fish you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, you feed him for a lifetime." If you just blindly follow my trades on twitter, you not only will become lazy in your preparation, you will never have the confidence or conviction to trade on your own.
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