Reminder: Red line=open Yellow lines=IB high/low Purple lines=yday high/low
Trade 1. Short 99.70 (9:01)
Why: We opened right on Mondays high to the tick, these are always the best opens, because we almost always pick a direction, & commit. Because we didnt get a print over .77 in the first min, I viewed it as an opening drive down, so I took the short, w/ .77 (yday high & 2day open) as my backstop.
Result: We ended up pushing through Mondays low as 98.52, then headed to THE low volume node on my 30 min composite at 97.75, I covered the rest just in front of it.
Trade 2. Long 97.79 (9:44)
Why: This (99.75) was THE low volume node on my composite, so if we were gonna bounce, it was gonna be here. Wish I could have saved a snap shot of it before the open, to show...
Result: I put my stop at breakeven after it moved 50 ticks in my favor, but it came back & stopped me flat, head fake #1 for the day....
Trade 3. Long 97.80 (10:07)
Why: Same reasons as trade #2, but now the IB was complete w/ the IB low at 97.80, lining up right w/ the lvn....very good, high probability setup.
Result: Got the bounce I was looking for, w/ fridays low as my main target at 98.52
Trade 3.5. Added Long 98.53 (10:46)
Why: I almost never do this, but I added to winner because I scaled heavy just in front of mondays low at 98.52, but then when we busted right through it I added back on what I had taken off because when we pushed & held mondays low, I knew the other timeframe buyers were in control, & we had a great chance to make it back to the open.
Result: We made it back to open almost where I got a scale off, then I ended up (dumbly) bailing at 99.25 on the rest because 99.77 was such a big area in the day timeframe I didnt think we would get through it.
Trade 4. Long 99.80 (12:06)
Why: 99.77 was mondays high, todays open, & todays IB high, not to mention w/ opening drive opens, the open becomes even more important as a reference point. Everyone that gets short has there stops above here, & this was such a big area, that fact that we pushed through it should have screamed at everyone that we were not done yet with the upside push yet. So I hit the offer, & didnt want to see it back under .77.
Result: I got a scale off at 100.50, then got stopped on the rest when dropped back under 100.
Trade 5. Short 99.81 (1:41)
Why: Again 99.77 was such an important area in the day timeframe this day, that if we were gonna head higher we should have held it (yday high, 2day open, 2day IB high)
Result: I didnt manage my risk very well, & ended up taking a loss when it got back over 100. Head fake #2.
Trade 6. Short 99.77 (2:09)
Why: Same reason as trade 4...it would have worked if we had more time, just ran out of time.
Result: closed out at the close
Hey Ben, Thanks for doing this blog! It has been a real eye-opener for me and you have done it in a way that I can easily understand.
ReplyDeleteI do have a few questions for ya-
I have a TOS account and I put their vol profile on my chart to try and learn how price reacts to its levels but the profile changes with each time frame, what time frames do you watch the profiles on for intra-day trading?
I've seen IB defined as the first 30 min and I see you use the first 60 min in CL is that different with each instrument?
Today I did my first paper trade using your method and it was good for 185 ticks! It was a short at 97 at 10:12 eastern time with the stop at 97.24 and my profit target was at 95.15 since that was a little above Fridays low and it was just a little above the 1 min vol profile VAL.
Thanks for the education!
Matt
As far as the time-frame on ur profile, there really isnt a single answer to that, if we are in a range, you might only need to go back a couple days, if we are at levels where we haven't traded since 08, then you have to go back 3 years to 08...so it really just depends.
ReplyDeleteIB is the high/low of the 1st hour...this should not change no matter what you trade.
Thanks Ben I appreciate the reply
ReplyDelete